Domestic coffee market: Strong increase, approaching the 130,000 VND/kg mark
In the domestic market, coffee prices today continued to increase by 1,000 - 1,300 VND/kg, fluctuating between 127,800 - 129,000 VND/kg.
Dak Nong: Recorded price of 129,000 VND/kg, increased by 1,200 VND/kg, continuing to be the area with the highest purchasing price in the country.
Dak Lak: Coffee price today reached 128,800 VND/kg, up 1,200 VND/kg.
Gia Lai: Purchase price reached 128,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,300 VND/kg, the highest increase of the day.
Lam Dong: Coffee prices in Di Linh, Lam Ha, Bao Loc remained at 127,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg.
According to experts, domestic coffee supply is being significantly reduced due to the Lunar New Year holiday disrupting purchasing and exporting activities. At the same time, weather developments in the Central Highlands may affect the drying and storage of coffee, putting further pressure on supply.
The Central Highlands region is forecast to record temperatures 1°C above average and rainfall 15mm above average over the next 15 days, which could slow down coffee processing, pushing prices further up.
Many experts predict that domestic coffee prices could reach 130,000 VND/kg tomorrow (February 2), becoming one of the highest prices in the history of the Vietnamese coffee industry.
World Coffee Market: Robusta and Arabica Set New Records
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices continue to increase sharply:
Delivery March 2025: 5,757 USD/ton, up 23 USD/ton.
Delivery in May 2025: 5,736 USD/ton, up 27 USD/ton.
On the New York floor, Arabica coffee prices also continued to increase:
March 2025 delivery: 375.70 cents/lb, up 2.3 cents/lb.
May 2025 delivery: 369.9 cents/lb, up 1.75 cents/lb.
Arabica coffee prices in New York have set a new year high, up more than 15% since early January.
Key factors pushing up coffee prices
Supply tightness: Robusta output in India is expected to fall by more than 10%, while coffee exports from Vietnam have slowed, raising concerns about a supply shortage.
Situation in Brazil: Brazil - the world's largest Arabica producer - is suffering from a severe drought in 2024. Forecasts for next season's crop will continue to decline, causing Arabica stocks on the ICE exchange to plummet by nearly 100,000 bags in just the past few days.
Weak USD: The falling USD index continues to support higher coffee prices. Meanwhile, hedge funds continue to increase their purchases, causing prices to escalate.
Major roasters such as Nestle (NESN.S) and JDE Peet’s (JDEP.AS) have yet to buy enough, while investment funds continue to bet on coffee’s rise, Reuters reported.
Comments and forecasts: Will coffee prices continue to increase?
Market data shows that coffee growers in Vietnam are hoarding their coffee, waiting for higher prices to sell. Meanwhile, in Brazil, unstable weather conditions have raised concerns about declining production.
Some experts predict that coffee prices may continue to increase in the short term, especially when the market enters the peak purchasing period at the beginning of the year. However, there are also warnings about the possibility of adjustment after a series of consecutive hot days.
Given the current situation, domestic coffee prices are likely to hit VND130,000/kg in the coming days, especially if supply continues to tighten and demand from major roasters increases.
