Domestic coffee prices struggle
On June 24, the domestic coffee market recorded no new adjustments. In the Central Highlands - a key coffee growing area, the price of green coffee beans continues to fluctuate around 96,000 VND/kg. Localities such as Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Dak Nong maintain prices of VND 96,000/kg, while Lam Dong trades around VND 95,500/kg. This price is equivalent to yesterday (September 23), showing that the decline temporarily slowed down after many consecutive sessions of depreciation last week.
Compared to the beginning of January 2025, coffee prices have now decreased sharply. At that time, domestic coffee prices were commonly recorded around 119,000 - 120,000 VND/kg, about 23,500 - 24,000 VND/kg higher than the current level.
Thus, in the first half of 2025, domestic coffee prices have undergone a period of strong adjustment. This decrease is said to stem from downward pressure on prices in the international market, combined with the factor of increased domestic supply in the main harvest.
Compared to the same period on June 24, 2024, coffee prices are also currently significantly low. According to market data at this time last year, domestic coffee prices are at 120,500 - 121,600 VND/kg. Thus, the current price is about 25,000 VND/kg lower than the same period in 2024.
International transactions continue to fluctuate
In the international market, derivative coffee prices have not shown any clear signs of recovery. At the end of the most recent session, Robusta prices on the London exchange recorded 3,887 USD/ton for the July 2025 delivery term, unchanged from the previous session. Longer terms such as September and November also fluctuated slightly around the 3,600 - 3,700 USD/ton range, showing that buying power is still quite cautious.
On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica prices continued to be under downward pressure. The September 2025 contract decreased by 7.25 cents to 315.05 cents/lb. Subsequent terms such as December 2025 and March 2026 were also adjusted down, bringing the price level back to 300 - 310 cents/lb.
Profit-taking pressure from speculators after a long series of increases in April and May, along with favorable weather forecasts in Brazil, is creating momentum to reduce the market. In addition, the pressure from the stronger US dollar makes USD-denominated commodities less attractive to investors, further contributing to increasing the downward trend in the short term.
Coffee price forecast
In the short term, coffee prices may enter a period of stability after a series of deep declines, especially for Robusta when technical sales and profit-taking have been largely absorbed.
In the medium term, the recovery outlook still faces many risks as supply from Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia is increasing, putting pressure on the global price level.
Without strong enough supporting factors, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the current low until the end of the third quarter of this year. Growers and businesses need to carefully consider the time of selling to limit damage when prices do not have clear signs of recovery.
