Domestic coffee prices
Opening the morning trading session today (December 30), the domestic coffee market recorded impressive growth, spreading green color throughout key growing areas of the Central Highlands. Selling pressure has decreased while year-end demand for goods has increased, causing the buying price to reverse and increase sharply from 700 - 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday's session. Currently, the regional average price has reached 97,400 VND/kg.
In the capital Dak Lak, the price of crushed coffee increased by 800 VND/kg today, reaching 97,300 VND/kg. Notably, in the two provinces of Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old), the increase amplitude recorded the highest level of 1,000 VND/kg.
Accordingly, the purchasing price in Gia Lai reached 97,300 VND/kg, while Dak Nong rose to lead the region with a price of 97,500 VND/kg. In Lam Dong, coffee prices also increased by 700 VND/kg, currently trading around 95,700 VND/kg.
This development shows that market sentiment is very positive. The fact that domestic prices quickly regained their upward momentum and approached the 98,000 VND/kg mark right before the New Year is a good sign for farmers.
World coffee prices
On the international market, two major exchanges just closed the first session of the week (Monday) with the main green color, strongly supported by adverse weather information in major manufacturing countries.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for January delivery in 2026 have re-established the important milestone of 4,000 USD/ton, specifically increasing by 7 USD to 4,019 USD/ton. For the March delivery in 2026 - the main reference term - the price increased by 26 USD (equivalent to 0.67%), closing at 3,884 USD/ton. Long-term terms such as May and July 2026 also simultaneously increased, maintaining above the threshold of 3,700 USD/ton.
The New York Stock Exchange witnessed the upward momentum of Arabica coffee even stronger. At the end of the session, the March 2026 futures contract increased by 1.90 cents (0.54%), closing at a high of 352.15 cents/lb. This is the highest level in the past 1.5 weeks. Futures for later delivery also maintained a good upward momentum, with the May 2026 term reaching 336.90 cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The main driving force for the price increase in the first session of the week came from concerns about supply disruptions due to weather.
According to a report from Somar Meteorologia, Brazil's key Arabica growing region Minas Gerais only received 11.1 mm of rain last week, only 17% compared to the historical average. This drought is raising serious concerns about next crop yields. In addition, the widespread flooding situation in Indonesia - the world's 3rd largest Robusta producer - is threatening to reduce coffee exports of this country by up to 15% in the 2025-2026 crop year, especially affecting Arabica growing areas in northern Sumatra.
However, the market still has potential risks of adjustment due to pressure from Vietnam's supply. Vietnam's November export data increased by 39% compared to the same period, reaching 88,000 tons, and forecasts that the 2025/2026 crop year output may increase by 6% to 1.76 million tons. However, with Robusta inventory on the ICE exchange, although slightly recovering to 4,278 lots, still in a low area, coupled with information forecasting a production deficit from Brazil, coffee prices are likely to continue to maintain at high prices in the short term.
This week, it is necessary to closely monitor the dien bien of the USD exchange rate and the next weather reports from South America to clearly determine the price trend before entering the New Year holiday.
