Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, April 22, recorded a simultaneous downward adjustment in key growing areas of the Central Highlands after strong fluctuations.
According to actual records, the average purchase price throughout the region has retreated to the threshold of 86,900 VND/kg with a general decrease of 500 VND/kg in all localities.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices are currently trading at the highest level in the region at 87,100 VND/kg. In Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces, the purchase price is also at the threshold of 86,800 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, Lam Dong region listed the lowest price in the region at 86,300 VND/kg. This decrease reflects the caution of domestic speculators as world coffee prices are under great pressure from macroeconomic supply and demand reports.
World coffee prices
On international exchanges, red color continued to cover both London and New York exchanges in the early morning closing session today. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery in New York fell another 3.20 cents, equivalent to 1.10%, to the lowest level in the past 7 weeks.
Similarly, the London exchange also recorded Robusta futures for May delivery falling 25 USD, equivalent to 0.72%, despite efforts to recover at the beginning of the session. A technical sell-off wave was triggered when investment funds were concerned about a long-term supply surplus, especially when Arabica could not maintain important support levels previously.
Coffee price assessment
The main reason for the current decline in coffee prices is the prospect of a super bumper crop in Brazil. Marex Group Plc estimates that the output of this South American country in the 2026/27 crop year may reach a record 75.9 million bags, an increase of 15.5% compared to the previous year.
At the same time, the StoneX organization also put pressure on market sentiment when forecasting that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, marking the largest surplus in the past 6 years.
In Vietnam, Q1 export data increased by 14% to 585,000 tons, showing that the actual supply of goods to the market is still maintained at a high level, creating additional downward pressure for the Robusta line.
Although the market is under great oversupply pressure, there are still some factors hindering the deep decline. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions in the Middle East continues to push up sea transportation costs, insurance and fuel costs, making it difficult for international roasters to import goods.
In addition, Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange are currently still at the lowest level in 16 months with only 3,788 lots as of the beginning of the week. In Brazil, rainfall in the Minas Gerais region last week only reached 20% of the historical average, which is also an important variable that could affect actual yields if the drought persists.
Coffee prices are for reference only, and may vary by region.
