Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market opened the first session of the week on April 20 with a slight simultaneous increase in key growing areas of the Central Highlands.
According to records, the purchase price has increased by another 300 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 85,400 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices are currently maintaining the highest level in the region at 85,500 VND/kg. Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both maintain stable trading levels at the 85,300 VND/kg mark.
Meanwhile, in Lam Dong province, the listed coffee price is 84,800 VND/kg. Although it increased slightly this morning, compared to the price level before the holiday, the market is still making efforts to accumulate to compensate for previous deep declines.
World coffee prices
Developments on international exchanges in the closing session last weekend recorded a deep red color due to positive changes in geopolitics.
On the London exchange, Robusta futures for May 2026 delivery fell by 86 USD (equivalent to 2.48%), closing the session at 3,388 USD/ton. At the same time, the New York exchange witnessed Arabica prices fall sharply by 7.15 cents (equivalent to 2.41%), closing at 289.30 cents/lb.
The direct cause of this fall was an announcement from Iran about the official reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This news immediately relieved concerns about disruptions to the global supply chain, restored sea transport flows and reduced pressure on insurance and fuel costs that had pushed coffee prices up before.
In addition to geopolitical factors, the pressure of future supply surplus continues to be a ghost weighing on futures prices. StoneX organization has just raised its forecast for global coffee surplus in 2026 to 10 million bags, the highest level in the past 6 years. This forecast is based on the "super crop" outlook of Brazil with production in the 2026/27 crop year expected to reach a record 75.9 million bags according to Marex Group Plc, an increase of 15.5% compared to the previous year. In addition, Vietnam's export figures in the first quarter increased sharply by 14%, reaching 585,000 tons, further strengthening the pessimistic sentiment towards supply for the Robusta line in the international market.
However, the market still has support points to stop the deep decline. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange have fallen to the lowest level in the past 16 months, with only 3,838 lots left as of last Friday. At the same time, the weather situation in Brazil is also showing negative signs when rainfall in the Minas Gerais region reached only 4.2 mm, equivalent to 20% of the historical average. This drought, if prolonged, could reduce actual yields, completely contrary to record production forecasts on paper. In Brazil, green coffee bean exports in March also recorded a decrease of 10% compared to the same period, showing that supply from this country is not as abundant as expected.
It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be strongly fluctuating around the 84,500 - 86,000 VND/kg range as investors balance the news of transport route clearance in Hormuz and the stockpile situation at the London floor which is at the bottom.
The actual prices at the purchasing yards may change depending on the area and specific agreements.
