Complex international factors and fluctuations that are difficult to predict
First is the escalating strategic competition between major countries. The current world situation is entering a period of profound and comprehensive power transition. In that context, the division in the world economic structure and the trend of "geopolitizing" trade have caused medium and small-scale countries, including Vietnam, to face great bilateral pressure. Vietnam must both skillfully balance strategic interests in relations with major countries and avoid being caught up in the cycle of competition and confrontation; at the same time, must ensure security of the supply chain, maintain independent development space and protect national and ethnic interests.
Second is the increasing global economic risk. The 2023-2024 period will witness a series of simultaneous global economic risks: slowing economic growth, maintaining high inflation in many major economies, prolonged energy crisis, continued local disruptions in the supply chain and strong fluctuations in prices of strategic goods.
For Vietnam, an economy with a very open economy, with a total import-export turnover equivalent to about 200% of GDP, external shocks can easily create a rapid and profound spillover effect. Reduced demand in key export markets could slow growth; fluctuations in international capital flows affect FDI attraction; while changes in global monetary policy could put pressure on exchange rates, interest rates and domestic financial stability. At the same time, import inflation from energy, food and input material prices poses a major challenge for macro-management.
Maintaining the country's position in this context requires macroeconomic governance capacity to be especially acute, with the ability to forecast accurately, respond quickly, flexibly and synchronously, to ensure economic stability, control risks and maintain the trust of people and businesses.
Third is the challenge of economic security and national sovereignty. For Vietnam, although the economy has achieved many important achievements, it still depends significantly on energy imports, input materials and core technology. Meanwhile, increasingly complex climate change, increased competition for access to resources, along with strong fluctuations in energy prices, food and global logistics are increasing the risk of macro-stabilization. These risks not only affect economic growth, but also directly affect people's lives, social psychology and trust in the State's management capacity.
In that context, a country that wants to rise strongly cannot stop at passive response to global shocks, but must proactively build strong enough endogenous capacity, increase the level of autonomy in key areas of the economy, while diversifying partners, markets and supply chains. Therefore, ensuring economic security is not only an immediate requirement, but a long-term strategic task, with vital significance for consolidating the country's position, maintaining national sovereignty and creating a solid foundation for sustainable development in the new period.
Challenges of digital transformation, high technology and artificial intelligence
The risk of falling behind technology is the first challenge. Vietnam has achieved many important results in national digital transformation, development of digital government, digital economy and digital society; many domestic enterprises have gradually approached new technology, participating more deeply in the global production chain. However, there are still fundamental limitations. The quality and coverage of digital infrastructure between regions and areas are not uniform; high-tech human resources are lacking in both quantity and quality. According to the latest international statistics from the World Bank, UNESCO and the Global Innovation Index (GII) Report, Vietnam's research and development (R&D) spending ratio in recent times has only fluctuated around 0.5% of GDP, significantly lower than that of leading countries in the region and the world. These bottlenecks reduce the ability to absorb and master new technology.
Without a breakthrough in institutions, resources and science - technology development strategies, the risk of falling behind technology will become reality, leading to a decline in national competitiveness in the medium and long term. Technology behind is not only an economic problem, but also directly affects national security and the country's strategic autonomy in the context of increasingly fierce global competition.
The rapid development of artificial intelligence and automation is profoundly changing the structure of the global labor market. Many studies predict that in the coming time, 20 to 30% of simple tasks may be replaced by machines and algorithms.
For Vietnam, the economy still has a large proportion of unskilled and unskilled workers, so the impact of automation can create the risk of structural unemployment if the workforce is not promptly equipped with new skills.
Without timely and comprehensive adaptation policies, the gap in skills, income and job opportunities between labor groups can increasingly widen, increasing the risk of social differentiation. This not only negatively affects economic growth, but also directly affects social cohesion and people's hearts.
In the digital age, cyberspace has become a new strategic space, along with land, sea, sky and sky space. Economic activities, state governance, national defense - security, communication and social life are increasingly dependent on digital infrastructure, data and technology platforms. In fact, in 2023, Vietnam recorded more than 12,000 cyber attacks against key information systems, reflecting the severity and complexity of security threats in the digital space.
In that context, cybersecurity is no longer a pure technical issue, but has become a component of national sovereignty. Digital sovereignty is therefore directly associated with political security, social order and safety and the autonomy of the country in the high-tech era.
These challenges pose an urgent need to build a strong enough "national digital shield", synchronously combining institutions, technology, human resources and international cooperation. Cyber security needs to be proactively deployed early and remotely to ensure the safety of the political, economic and social systems against the risks of high-tech crimes, cyber Escape and increasingly sophisticated forms of information warfare.
The negative side of social media and challenges to the people's hearts
cyberspace becomes a new front for information warfare. Social networks are becoming an environment for forming public opinion at an unprecedented speed, far surpassing traditional media channels in both reach and impact intensity.
In that context, hostile forces, elements of opportunity and interest groups have taken full advantage of social networks to distort the Party's guidelines and policies, distort the State's policies and laws; fabricate and exaggerate negative incidents; sow skepticism, dissatisfaction and social division. Through the tactic of "quick-fighting - spreading - causing harassment", these subjects seek to directly impact social awareness, reduce trust and cause public disorder.
A worrying feature of the current digital environment is the phenomenon of " left-handed information balls", when algorithms of social networking platforms prioritize displaying content that is suitable for users' existing views. This selective and repetitive reception of information easily frames personal awareness, reducing the ability to access multidimensional and objective perspectives.
As a result, the trend of radicalizing viewpoints and Polarizing information is increasing. Social groups and online communities are easily divided into opposing "opines", lacking dialogue and tolerance. In such an environment, differences in policies, interests or views on issues can quickly be pushed into fierce confrontation, eroding the foundation of social consensus.
Prolonged information polarization not only reduces the quality of democratic life, but also creates conditions for bad forces to exploit, deepen conflicts and incite division. This is a serious challenge for maintaining social stability and consolidating the great national unity bloc in the digital age.
The widespread spread of negative, suspicious and unverified information on social networks is creating new psychological and social pressures on the people. States of anxiety, insecurity, skepticism and frustration can spread very quickly, crossing the boundaries of space, age and social class, increasing feelings of instability in spiritual life.
In many cases, a single incident that is not fully informed, handled promptly and transparently can quickly be pushed into a "communication crisis", even becoming a "crisis of trust". At that time, social impact does not stop at a specific incident, but spreads into a mentality of doubt in the management and operation capacity of the state apparatus.
Therefore, cyberspace governance has become an inseparable part of social governance and people's heart governance in the new period. Proactively providing accurate, timely and humane information; enhancing dialogue, listening and giving public feedback; at the same time, protecting people from fake news and information manipulation is an important condition to maintain social trust and long-term stability.
Risk of falling behind and social differentiation
The middle-income and low- productivity trap is an existing risk.
Despite many important achievements after nearly four decades of renovation, Vietnam's labor productivity is still low compared to many countries in the region and the world.
However, reality shows that without fundamental reforms in the growth model, Vietnam is at risk of falling into a long-term "middle-income trap", in which growth rate slows down, competitiveness declines and the gap with the previous economies increases. This is not only a pure economic challenge, but also directly affects the ability to implement social goals, improve people's lives and strengthen confidence in the country's long-term development prospects.
Therefore, improving labor productivity must be identified as a central task, closely linked to the development of high-quality human resources, education - training reform, promoting innovation and comprehensive digital transformation. Only by creating a breakthrough in productivity and growth quality can Vietnam realize the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045 and firmly consolidating the country's position in the new period.
Uneven development between regions is a major challenge for social stability and sustainable development. While large cities and key economic regions are developing rapidly, some areas still face difficulties in income, quality of education - health, transport infrastructure and access to basic services. Without effective regulation and support policies, regional differences can accumulate into persistent social inequality, increasing the psychology of comparison, disadvantage and dissatisfaction. This poses a potential risk of social cracks, directly affecting consensus and solidarity among the people - an important foundation of people's hearts and political stability.
Vietnam is expected to enter a period of social aging from around 2036, with the aging rate being among the fastest in the region. This process poses great challenges for the social security system, health care, pension funds and ensuring the quality of labor in the long term. As the proportion of elderly people increases rapidly, the pressure on the state budget and public services will increase.
In addition to challenges, population aging also changes the structure of the labor market, requiring adjustment of employment policies, retraining middle-aged workers and better grasping the experience and knowledge of the older labor force. Without timely adaptation solutions, the risk of labor shortage, productivity decline and increased social burden can affect growth and long-term stability.
Management the population aging process well has therefore become an important requirement for sustainable development. Proactively reforming the social security system, developing elderly care services, improving the quality of preventive medicine and building flexible population policies will contribute to ensuring social stability, strengthening people's hearts and maintaining the country's development momentum in the new period.
Internal challenges of the apparatus and national governance capacity
practice shows that in a part of cadres and civil servants, there is still a mentality of fear of making mistakes, avoiding responsibility, and lacking decisiveness in handling work. The reason does not only stem from subjective factors, but also related to the overlapping and unsynchronized legal system; the mechanism for determining responsibilities is not very clear; while the institutions to protect those who dare to think, dare to do, dare to innovate have not been fully improved. The psychology of concern about legal responsibility and criminal responsibility during the performance of public duties, if not resolved by appropriate mechanisms, can lead to stagnation, slow down the progress of policy implementation and reduce management efficiency at many levels and in many fields.
In addition, socio-economic institutions in some fields have not kept up with the country's rapid and sustainable development requirements, causing congestion in mobilizing and allocating resources, hindering the implementation of strategic projects of widespread significance. The quality of public services between localities is still uneven, not fully meeting the expectations of people and businesses. The arrangement of administrative units, streamlining the organizational apparatus, and perfecting the two-level local government model still have "bottlenecks" in terms of institutions, organization and people, requiring a drastic, synchronous approach and a longer-term vision.
The above limitations do not weaken the country, but pose unprecedented requirements for leadership intelligence, political courage and national governance capacity in the new period. Only by properly identifying the nature of internal challenges, having timely institutional solutions, creating an environment to encourage innovation, promoting responsibility and creativity of the staff, can Vietnam remove development bottlenecks, maintain stability, strengthen the people's hearts and gradually build a modern, effective and efficient governance - a solid foundation for the country in the next development journey.
