According to trading statistics on the HOSE floor last week, the VN-Index had 2 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 11.79 points, equivalent to an increase of 0.98% to 1,222.46 points.
Regarding liquidity, the HOSE floor was trading vigorously, except for the trading session on April 10, which was at a record low due to no "goods" for sale. In total, the total trading value last week reached VND102,173 billion, although the market only traded for 4 sessions due to the Hung Kings' Commemoration Day holiday.
With 2 strong increases last weekend, the entire market's capitalization also recovered more than 700,000 billion VND, reaching nearly 6.8 million billion VND. This is a remarkable effort after the market was "inflated" with more than 1.2 million billion in 4 sessions falling deep since Mr. Donald Trump first announced the counterpart tax rate.
Although there have been positive net buying sessions, with strong selling pressure on bluechips, foreign investors still net sold nearly VND1,700 billion in the past 4 trading sessions.
In a recent strategic report, KB Vietnam Securities Company (KBSV) stated that the outlook for the stock market in the remaining time of 2025 will face many challenges. The main pressure from Mr. Trump's tariff policies is applied to goods from many countries, including Vietnam.
However, the profit growth of enterprises will still have a slight improvement compared to the same period, and the interest rate level, although higher than the initial estimate, will still be low, which will be factors that help the market not decline too much.
With the world situation situation full of fluctuations, KBSV is more cautious about the growth of EPS in the whole market at 5% (adjusted down compared to before).
Specifically, the leading industry groups include healthcare, information technology, raw materials, these are the industry groups with less risk of being taxed. The group of raw materials that benefit from public investment is being promoted as a measure to boost the economy.
Industry groups that grew lower than the general level include industry and non-essential consumer goods. KBSV assessed that this group will be greatly affected by tariff policies, especially groups exporting goods to the US such as textiles and seafood. In addition, the group of banks with a large proportion also corresponds to being subject to growth adjustment, due to unusual macro-level fluctuations that can affect the operations of the entire industry.
According to KBSV, the peak of the trade war will likely take place in April 2025, after the US announces tariff policies and other countries take response/range measures.
The negative impacts on the stock market could be balanced again by the end of the second quarter of 2025, as the market has partially discounted to reflect negative impacts, and uncertain risks may ease as policy orientations in Tradewar 2.0 gradually become clearer, KBSVs report stated.
VDSC Securities Company also commented that the business results of the first quarter of 2025 are expected to maintain a positive growth rate. VDSC's monitoring list, including 58 stocks representing about 70% of market capitalization, recorded an increase of 11% compared to the first quarter of 2024. In particular, large industry groups such as banking (up 12%) and real estate (up 193%) will be the factors leading the profit growth of the market.
However, the prospect of business results in the second quarter of 2025 is likely to be affected by the new tariff policy, if negotiation solutions do not achieve timely results. With the market's quick and strong reaction immediately after receiving information about the Trump administration's tariffs, VDSC expects the VN-Index to soon find a balance and recover.
