World gold price movements last week
The gold market started in a quiet state, then gradually accumulated momentum throughout the shortened trading week thanks to increasing expectations of a breakthrough with Iran.
However, those hopes were dashed after US President Donald Trump's tough speech on Wednesday evening, wiping out more than half of the increase in precious metals.
Spot gold prices opened the week at exactly 4,400 USD/ounce. After quickly falling to 4,375 USD/ounce, gold prices began to rise steadily, despite quite strong fluctuations. Half an hour after the North American stock market opened, spot gold was traded at 4,460 USD/ounce, and just before noon it had surpassed 4,530 USD/ounce.
This precious metal continued to fall sharply to retest the support zone around 4,420 USD/ounce at the beginning of the Asian session, but by 2:30 am on Tuesday, gold prices had set a new week high at 4,540 USD/ounce, then increased to 4,573 USD/ounce at 8:30 am.
Once again, the Asian trading session opened with a rather cautious sentiment, but then gold prices suddenly surged by another 100 USD in just one hour, reaching a peak of 4.624 USD/ounce right after 7:30 PM.
After a correction in the European session, the North American market entered the trading day with positive developments when gold surpassed the week's peak around 4.620 USD/ounce and increased steadily until the stock market closed, to nearly 4,685 USD/ounce.
Asian traders continued the upward momentum left by the North American market, and by 8:15 PM on Tuesday, gold prices had surpassed the 4,700 USD/ounce mark.
The upward momentum continued to be strengthened throughout Wednesday's trading session, as many speculations emerged that US President Donald Trump may make a positive announcement regarding the war with Iran.
Spot gold prices peaked at 4,800 USD/ounce before Mr. Trump's speech. However, those expectations quickly vanished when the announcement aimed at Iran's civilian and oil infrastructure caused gold prices to plummet by more than 100 USD in just 20 minutes, falling back below 4,600 USD/ounce at 2:00 AM Eastern time.
After that, gold prices recovered at a modest but fairly stable level, approaching the 4,700 USD/ounce mark at 10:30 AM Eastern time, and closing a shortened trading week at a level about 20 USD lower than this threshold.
Gold price forecast for next week
A weekly gold survey with Wall Street experts shows that analysts are tending to stand idly by and observe the mixed signals from the US administration related to Iran.
This week, 15 experts participated in the survey. In the context of contradictory messages from the US government, Wall Street analysts generally choose to be cautious. 4 experts, equivalent to 27%, forecast that gold prices will continue to increase next week; while 3 others, accounting for 20%, believe that prices will decrease. The majority of analysts, equivalent to 53%, believe that short-term risks are in a balanced state, or choose to stay outside the market this week.
Meanwhile, Kitco's online survey recorded 61 participation votes. 36 small investors, equivalent to 59%, believe that gold prices will increase next week; 13 others, accounting for 21%, predict that this precious metal will decrease. The remaining 12 investors, equivalent to 20% of the total participants, predict that gold prices will remain flat next week.
Economic data to be tracked next week
Next week, the market is likely to start with attention focused on the jobs report released on Friday, before the focus shifts to new data on inflation, growth, industrial production, and minutes of the most recent meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED).
On Monday, the market will receive the US ISM service PMI index for March. Next, on Tuesday, the US will announce durable goods order figures for February. By Wednesday afternoon, minutes of the FED's March monetary policy meeting will be released.
Next Thursday, traders will follow the final Q4 GDP figures, the core PCE index of February, and the number of weekly unemployment claims. Closing the week, on Friday morning, the market will receive the March CPI report and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan.
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