There is only 1 month left until the end of 2024 with many unpredictable fluctuations. The market grew about 100 points last year, including many strong fluctuations during the year.
What stock investors are most concerned about right now is when will market liquidity be “activated”? However, entering the first trading session of the last month of the year, the market has yet to “decode” the above question.
In the trading session on December 2, market liquidity continued to be low, reaching only nearly VND12,000 billion, showing cautious demand from investors. Congested liquidity and the weakness of large stocks and pillar industries made it difficult for the VN-Index to maintain its strong growth momentum.
The market has had more positive points in the second half of November when the general index had consecutive sessions of positive reversals and the return of net buying status of foreign investors. However, the current recovery is happening naturally when VN-Index falls to the psychological threshold of 1,200 but has not shown a change in trend. Especially when liquidity decreases during the uptrends and easily increases again when entering the downtrend, it shows fragility, it is not easy for the index to maintain above the threshold of 1,250 points in the coming trading sessions.
The reason why the stock market is having difficulty increasing is that there has not been any new money entering the market recently, causing liquidity to gradually decrease. The weak cash flow is due to investors waiting for lower price ranges, especially when market stocks such as banks, securities, steel, real estate, and retail have not yet formed a clear equilibrium. Besides, the main thing is that at the current price range, many investors have not yet returned to shore, so liquidity has not increased.
Traditionally, the end of the year often sees a trend of investors withdrawing money, this factor is especially noteworthy when the market performance this year has been unfavorable.
The trend in the last months of the year is likely to continue to be quiet, in order to have a real change. Many analysts believe that there needs to be breakthrough factors, a stronger “push”, such as information about upgrading, or even a sharp decline to activate the bottom-fishing cash flow.
The first concern is still macroeconomic stability in the context of the global economy next year forecast to have many unpredictable fluctuations. There will be many unexpected variables taking place next year that investors can only wait and adapt to, but it is difficult to predict in advance.
In December, data on credit growth and public investment disbursement progress may return to the center of attention of investors. Convincing enough figures will create more confidence for investors in the expectation of the economy's internal strength in the new year.
Furthermore, the persistent stories about exchange rates, foreign investors, the FED's interest rate cut roadmap, expectations about US tax policies on Vietnamese exports, and further the results of anti-dumping investigations may be factors that the market will repeat to support or resist the index's performance in the coming period.
However, for the market to go further and create an upward wave, strong cash flow is always needed, big players must join the game, and expectations must gradually increase. This is exactly what is lacking when the market is in an information valley.
