Pressure from domestic buying and selling disparity
On July 19, SJC gold bar price at Phu Quy was listed at 144-147.5 million VND/tael; DOJI traded at 144.5-147.5 million VND/tael. Bao Tin Minh Chau listed lower, at 142.6-146.6 million VND/tael.
For 9999 gold rings, Phu Quy listed at 143-146.5 million VND/tael. The price at DOJI is 143.3-147.3 million VND/tael, while Bao Tin Minh Chau traded at 142.6-146.6 million VND/tael.
On the international market, gold prices stood at 4,017.3 USD/ounce.
A point to note is that the difference between the buying and selling prices of domestic gold is commonly at 3-4 million VND/tael. This is a cost that buyers have to face immediately after completing the transaction.
For example, a person buying SJC gold bars at Phu Quy at a price of 147.5 million VND/tael, if resold immediately at a purchase price of 144 million VND/tael, will record a difference of 3.5 million VND/tael. With gold rings at DOJI, the distance between two directions is up to 4 million VND/tael.
In case gold prices do not increase enough to compensate for the difference, short-term holders may find it difficult to balance capital. The buy-sell gap therefore continues to be a factor to consider when assessing price fluctuations next week.
Wall Street experts lean towards a downward scenario
The survey results of a precious metals website with 14 Wall Street experts show that analysts' sentiment has shifted to a downward trend.
Among the 14 experts participating in the survey, only one person, equivalent to 7%, believes that gold prices may increase next week. 11 people, accounting for 79%, forecast prices to decrease. The remaining two experts, equivalent to 14%, predict that gold prices will remain flat.
In the group of individual investors, there is a differentiation of views. In 169 votes, 68 people, accounting for 40%, predicted gold prices would increase. 61 people, equivalent to 36%, believed that prices would decrease, while 40 people, accounting for 24%, predicted a market accumulation.
The difference between analysts and individual investors shows that the market has not formed consensus on trends. In that context, the developments of the USD, bond yields and cash flow in the financial market may continue to affect gold prices.
Market awaits ECB decision
After a week of many economic data and Fed hearings, the calendar of events next week is assessed to be less frequent. This may cause gold prices to react more clearly to geopolitical information or statements from central bank officials.
The event that was noticed took place on Thursday, when the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy decision. The market is currently leaning towards the possibility that this agency will keep interest rates unchanged. After the decision, the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde may provide more signals about inflation, growth and policy orientation in the coming time.
On the same day, the US announced the number of weekly jobless claims. This data reflects part of the labor market situation, thereby affecting the Fed's interest rate expectations.
By Friday, investors will monitor the preliminary PMI index for July released by S&P Global, along with June new home sales data. If data shows economic activity is maintained, expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates at the current level could affect the USD and bond yields. Conversely, weakening data could change monetary policy forecasts.
The information in the article is intended to provide market developments and factors to be monitored, not to recommend buying, selling or holding gold.
