According to a newly released report by the World Gold Council (WGC), total global gold demand in Q2/2026, including decentralized trading (OTC), reached 1,269 tons, almost unchanged compared to the same period last year. Accumulated in the first 6 months of the year, demand reached 2,522 tons, up 2% over the same period, while market value increased to a record 380 billion USD.
WGC said the increase in value reflects the impact of the gold price level remaining at a very high level. In the second quarter, the average gold price according to LBMA PM standard reached 4,506.29 USD/ounce, 8% lower than the peak of the first quarter but still 37% higher than the same period in 2025.
Regarding prospects, WGC believes that investment demand will continue to be the main growth driver of the gold market in the remaining months of 2026. This momentum will be increasingly supported by OTC transactions and buying power from Asia, while capital inflows into gold ETF funds in North America and Europe may fluctuate more strongly due to the impact of real yields, monetary policy expectations and the diễn biến of the USD.
According to the WGC, the demand for physical gold investment in the form of gold bars and gold coins is likely to cool down after a strong increase at the beginning of the year. However, fundamental factors such as geopolitical instability, inflation concerns and the lack of attractive investment channels in many markets continue to create momentum for gold holding demand.
For gold ETF funds in North America, WGC believes that the opportunity cost of holding gold is a major obstacle in the short term. Increased real yields and expectations of monetary policy adjustments may limit capital flows in the third quarter. However, the organization also noted some factors such as the weakening USD, worsening credit conditions or negative stock market prospects that could help gold regain its attractiveness to investors.
In Asia, the WGC assesses that investment demand remains positive. In China, the low interest rate environment, geopolitical risks, and the real estate market that has not fully recovered, along with regulations on value-added tax, continue to create favorable conditions for gold investment demand. Meanwhile, in India, investors still maintain positive expectations for gold prices and tend to increase buying every time prices adjust.
Conversely, jewelry production demand is forecast to continue to be a weakness of the market. In the second quarter, gold consumption for jewelry only reached 278 tons, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, when high gold prices and inflationary pressure reduced consumer spending capacity. However, total spending on gold jewelry still increased by 14% over the same period, to 40 billion USD, showing that gold still plays an important role in the asset structure of consumers.
According to WGC, jewelry buyers are tending to choose lighter products or switch to more investment-oriented products to adapt to high price levels. In China, the recovery process of jewelry demand is forecast to be slow even when gold prices stabilize, while in India, small-weighted products will continue to increase in proportion.
In the technology sector, gold demand reached 80 tons in the second quarter and continued to increase slightly thanks to investments related to artificial intelligence (AI), partly offsetting the weakening of the consumer electronics market.
For the central banking sector, WGC said that net purchases in the second quarter reached 289 tons, strongly recovering after the stagnation phase of the first quarter. According to this organization, central banks are still on track to record another year of large-scale gold purchases, thanks to the need to diversify reserves, hedge inflation and minimize geopolitical and financial risks. However, total purchases for the whole year 2026 are likely to remain lower than the level of 2025.
On the supply side, WGC forecasts that mining output will only increase slightly in 2026. High gold prices and positive profit margins will support mining activities, but operating limitations and long project implementation time will make the supply growth rate not too large.
Supply from recycled gold is also expected to increase modestly. WGC believes that the expectation that gold prices will continue to rise, the amount of gold ready to be sold on the market is not large and financial pressure has not spread, causing people to continue to hold gold instead of selling. Accordingly, the prospects of the gold market in the second half of the year will depend more on the strength and structure of investment demand, rather than the sharp increase in supply.
