Bright spots from policy
According to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia - economic expert, the most prominent policy highlight is that the Land Law, Housing Law and Real Estate Business Law have officially taken effect from August 1, 2024. This is an extremely important bright spot for economic recovery in general and macroeconomic stability in particular.
These laws and decrees have a widespread impact on many industries and sectors such as banking and finance, securities, retail, tourism, transportation, and especially construction and real estate. At the same time, this is also one of the driving forces to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, disbursement of bank credit, and overcoming the frozen period of the real estate market.
Besides, Monetary Policy continues to be loosened and flexible to reduce lending interest rates for businesses, including in production and business and the real estate market.
“In the last 6 months of 2024, we will continue to maintain the policy of extending, deferring, and maintaining the debt group for businesses to continue pumping credit into the economy. In fact, the credit growth rate in recent months has changed positively, the credit growth rate exceeded 6% in the first 6 months of the year and is forecast to exceed 15-16%,” said Dr. Le Xuan Nghia.
The expert also said that the State Bank continues to maintain a stable exchange rate and sharply reduce the gap between domestic and international gold prices. Although these measures are not yet truly sustainable, they initially show a positive impact in strengthening the confidence of domestic and international investors in the Government's ability to control the macro-economy.
Fiscal policy continues to improve, especially budget revenue continues to increase. The corporate bond market and stock market still have a relatively positive growth rate compared to last year, although foreign investors sold a large amount of net, but domestic investors have replaced them spectacularly.
In addition, the determination of the Government and management agencies in upgrading the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to an emerging market in the coming time will be a great driving force for the market, securities companies, and enterprises listed on the stock exchange.
Positive outlook from many sectors
With favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing factors, many experts believe that the last months of the year will be a favorable time for businesses to make a breakthrough when economic conditions improve, the business environment is positive, and new laws come into effect.
On the other hand, the story of interest rates and exchange rates becoming more positive means that the stock market will have more opportunities, leading to large cash flows re-entering the market.
This also opens up positive expectations as the market enters a new cycle. According to Mr. Doan Minh Tuan - Head of Research & Investment, FIDT: The major risks of the Vietnamese stock market in the medium term have passed. Among them, there are risks of personnel changes and exchange rate risks, as well as concerns about economic recession and market valuation risks.
“In the near future, we believe that the cash flow psychology will become very good, supporting demand. Market liquidity will most likely return to the 20,000 billion VND range, supporting the medium-term uptrend of the market,” Mr. Tuan commented.
Stocks that are expected to attract investment cash flow in the near future continue to be related to policies such as real estate stocks with the market recovery trend after the recession period of 2022 - 2023 and the positive impact of 3 laws that officially took effect in early August.
Stocks of some securities companies will also benefit from the stock market upgrading trend at the end of the third quarter of 2024. In addition, the public investment group is also more active thanks to the trend of promoting public investment, according to the Government's key public investment policy lasting 2024 - 2025. In addition, the textile and garment industry also benefits directly from very high export demand.
