Pollution forecast proposed to be raised from 48 hours to 7-10 days

Linh Chi |

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proposes to increase the air pollution forecast time from 48 hours to 7-10 days to help people be more proactive in daily life and response.

5 groups of solutions to reduce pollution levels

On the morning of January 30, Hanoi continued to rank 13th out of 15 most polluted cities in the world (according to IQAir application) with a pollution index at a red level of 153 - a bad air quality warning level, harming people's health, especially sensitive groups. The reason for the high air quality index (AQI) is due to pollution sources from traffic, construction, production...

In addition, in unfavorable weather days, emissions cannot be released high, leading to pollution at night and early morning.

By 2030, Hanoi strives to reduce the annual average PM2.5 dust concentration by 20% compared to the measurement level of 2024, bringing this index down to below 40μg/m3. Satellite provinces such as Thai Nguyen, Phu Tho, Bac Ninh... also set a target to reduce this index by over 10%. The goal is also to increase the number of days with good air quality in Hanoi to 80%. This number makes many people question whether there are accurate monitoring data to accurately determine the set goals.

Mr. Truong Manh Tuan - Deputy Head of the Environmental Quality Management Department (Department of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) affirmed that, with the goal of reducing fine dust emissions, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and Hanoi City both have a network system of environmental quality monitoring stations.

These stations measure the concentration of pollutants in the air and announce results periodically or annually, and compare them with national technical regulations on air quality. From there, we can assess the level of pollution, the annual trend of increasing or decreasing pollution, as well as developments over time.

From these monitoring data, we will analyze and evaluate how many days a year air quality is at a good level, how many days at an average level, how many days at a poor or bad level; see if air quality has improved in previous years," Mr. Tuan said.

To aim for the goal of reducing fine dust by 20% in Hanoi as well as neighboring provinces and cities, representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment also said that it is necessary to synchronously implement 5 groups of solutions: perfecting mechanisms and policies; building inter-regional and inter-provincial coordination mechanisms; applying emission standards for automobiles and soon motorbikes and mopeds, controlling polluting sources; applying science and technology and data management and mobilizing resources in finance, technology and human resources.

Towards raising the forecast to 7-10 days

According to Mr. Truong Manh Tuan, the Department of Environment has coordinated with the Finnish Institute of Meteorology to research and is building a forecasting model based on the SILAM model - a very modern model in the world to assess and forecast 48-hour air pollution; in the future, the Ministry will focus on investing to increase forecasting capabilities, possibly towards 7 - 10 days.

However, extending the forecasting time requires large resources and technical and technological capacity must be significantly improved. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will focus on strengthening this content to extend the forecasting and information disclosure time for the community. We have assessed and forecast for 2 days, aiming to build an extended forecasting time to 7-10 days," Mr. Tuan said.

Regarding the proposal to raise the air pollution forecast to 7-10 days, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hoang Anh Le - Head of the Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Environment, University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi - said that if they want to count and forecast air pollution, localities across the country need to implement emission inventory programs to form an initial database. In which there are three basic data groups: First is the database on emissions sources, second is meteorological data, including meteorological forecasts and instant meteorological data (current monitoring) to serve the assessment of spread and pollution forecasting, and third is terrain and space data.

This is a necessary factor for calculating, simulating and forecasting the spread of air pollution. When putting these data into forecast models, if the input data is good enough, air pollution can be completely predicted," Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hoang Anh Le shared.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hoang Anh Le said that the accuracy of forecasts depends greatly on the quality of data, especially meteorological data. The closer the forecast to the actual time, the higher the accuracy is usually. However, if forecasts are more long-term, state management agencies and the community will have more opportunities to proactively prevent and build more effective air pollution management plans.

Linh Chi
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