Discussing the risk of drought, water shortage, and saltwater intrusion in the 2026-2027 dry season, Mr. Nguyen Hong Khanh - Deputy Director of the Department of Management and Construction of Irrigation Works (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment) - said that many agricultural production areas may be affected if El Nino develops according to a high or very high risk scenario.
El Nino is forecast to strengthen in the coming months. How will this affect water sources serving production and people's lives in the 2026-2027 dry season, sir?
- Information from the meteorological and hydrological agency, El Nino has appeared and is forecast to be maintained with strong to very strong intensity in the coming months.
According to forecasts, from September to November 2026, El Nino has a 100% probability of maintaining strong to very strong intensity; the possibility of reaching very strong intensity is about 93%. In the period of October to December 2026, the probability of El Nino reaching very strong intensity may be up to 95%. From December 2026 to February 2027, strong to very strong states still have a probability of about 93%.
The risk of widespread drought and saltwater intrusion may start from the beginning of the dry season, around November 2026 and last until May 2027 in the Mekong Delta, the South Central Highlands, and the Southeast; especially the North Central Coast and the South Central Coast may last until July-August 2027.
If El Nino develops according to an unfavorable scenario, which areas will be affected the soonest and most severely, sir?
- In a very high risk scenario, water sources to the Mekong Delta may be lower than the multi-year average by about 15-20%. At that time, saltwater intrusion may be at a level equivalent to the 2015-2016 dry season.
The salinity boundary of 4g/l at the mouths of the Mekong River can penetrate 50-70km deep, 7-13km deeper than the multi-year average; at the mouths of the Vam Co River, it can penetrate 110-130km deep, 30-42km deeper.
According to calculations, about 85,800 hectares of Dong Xuan rice are at risk of being affected; the area of rice - shrimp in areas mainly using rainwater can be about 120,000 hectares. About 45,000 hectares of fruit trees in coastal areas are also facing the risk of being affected.
For the remaining areas, how is the level of impact on agricultural production in these areas calculated?
- In the North Central Coast and South Central Coast, the water source for production depends greatly on the amount of water stored in reservoirs in the 2026 rainy season.
According to a very high risk scenario, if this year's rainfall is 20-40% short, combined with hot weather and temperatures 1-2 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average, the 2026-2027 Winter-Spring crop may have about 25,000-50,000 hectares of crops affected.
More notably is the Summer-Autumn crop of 2027. The risk of drought and water shortage may peak from June-August 2027. In a very high risk scenario, the total area likely to be affected is about 90,000-120,000 hectares, of which North Central Coast is about 30,000-40,000 hectares, and South Central Coast is about 60,000-80,000 hectares.
For the Central Highlands and Southeast regions, drought and water shortage mainly affect areas outside the service scope of irrigation works. This is a noteworthy area because the area outside irrigation works accounts for more than 70% of agricultural cultivation area.
In the harsh dry season, with a rain shortage of 20-40% and temperatures higher than the multi-year average, about 135,000-90,000 hectares, mainly perennial crops, are at risk of being affected.
With the risk of simultaneously affecting production and people's lives, what solutions is the irrigation sector preparing right from this time to limit damage?
- We have determined that we must prepare according to a very high risk scenario and have proactively implemented "pre-disaster" actions, including closely monitoring the developments of El Nino, continuously updating specialized forecasts on drought, water shortage, saltwater intrusion for agricultural production and rural domestic water.
For the Mekong Delta, the plan is prepared to respond to a salinity intrusion situation that may develop at a level equivalent to the 2019-2020 dry season. Localities need to proactively arrange crop seasons right from the Summer-Autumn crop of 2026 to be able to push ahead with the Winter-Spring crop of 2026-2027, limiting production at times when salinity intrusion is high. At the same time, it is necessary to closely monitor salinity and water sources to proactively take and store fresh water when conditions permit.
For the Central, Central Highlands and Southeast regions, response plans are built on the basis of drought and water shortage situations that may be equivalent to the 2014-2016 period. In the immediate future, irrigation reservoirs must take advantage of the rainy season to accumulate the highest amount of water possible while still ensuring project safety...
Thank you, sir!
