The peak of the rainy and flood season is approaching. Lao Dong Newspaper reporter had an interview with Dr. Hoang Duc Cuong - Deputy Director General of the General Department of Hydrometeorology (Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment).
Sir, from the beginning of 2024 until now, natural disasters have had many complicated developments. How to assess the natural disaster situation from now until the end of 2024 when ENSO changes to La Nina state?
- Current forecast models have high consensus that the La Nina phenomenon may develop from September to October 2024 with a probability of 60-70%. Then continue to maintain the La Nina state in the last months of 2024 and the first months of 2025 with a probability of about 70-80%.
It is forecast that from now until the end of 2024, tropical storm/low pressure activity in the East Sea area is likely to appear at a level approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years (on average, there are about 6-7 storms in many years). . In particular, the number of storms landing on the mainland may be higher than the average of many years (on average, there are about 3-4 storms in many years) and is concentrated in the Central region and the southern provinces.
With the scenario of La Nina occurring, the possibility of a tropical storm/low pressure forming right in the East Sea area will be higher than normal. Heavy rain mainly concentrates in October-November 2024. The rainy season in the Central Highlands, Central Highlands and Southern regions may end later than usual (around the second half of November in the Central Highlands and Southern region and around the second half of December 2024 in the Central region).
Normally, in the years when La Niña affects, what direction do natural disasters in Vietnam usually take, sir?
- Statistics show that, in the years when La Niña appears, rainfall often exceeds the average for many years, storms/tropical depressions are likely to appear many times in the East Sea, concentrated in a short period of time.
The activity time of tropical storms/depressions nearly coincides with the peak of the rainy season in areas of Vietnam, leading to more serious flood risks. Specific forecasts will be provided by the hydrometeorological agency in short-term bulletins a few days in advance based on calculations and actual observation data.
With the above developments of natural disasters in the coming time, what directions does the General Department of Hydrometeorology have in place to support early remote response to natural disasters?
- Early warning is very important in preventing and responding to natural disasters. That is also the action motto of the Hydrometeorology industry up to now. Currently, we continue to warn about the possibility of heavy rain and floods in the Central provinces in the coming time, especially in October and November when the La Nina phenomenon may form and have an impact.
The General Department of Hydrometeorology has directed functional units to strengthen the monitoring and supervision of atmospheric and oceanic conditions and issue warnings and notifications about the La Nina phenomenon when the monitoring and forecasting data reach the required threshold. In addition, closely monitor the hydrometeorological situation nationwide, especially focusing on the Central region, before each natural disaster that has the potential to cause major impacts such as: storms, tropical depressions, heavy rains, widespread flooding, droughts, etc.
Hydro-meteorological forecasting units proactively supplement thematic forecasts, early and remote forecasts so that local authorities and people can know and be proactive in prevention and control. Especially for strong storms with high impact levels and large, widespread floods.
In order for information to reach the masses, we will also increase the provision of information to media and press agencies to objectively and promptly convey information about natural disasters in general and storms, rains and floods. in particular so that the community can proactively prevent and avoid it.
Sincerely thank you!
