Existing liquidity pressure
According to a report from the Ministry of Construction, real estate inventory in Q2/2026 exceeded 39,000 units, of which individual housing inventory increased by more than 46%. Notably, the number of successful real estate transactions nationwide decreased by 36% compared to the same period last year.
According to Vietstock statistics, by the end of June, inventory of 106 listed real estate businesses reached more than 635,700 billion VND, an increase of 20% compared to the beginning of the year, reflecting the mismatch between supply and actual demand in the market.
The main reason comes from the supply-demand mismatch. Most of the inventory is concentrated in mid- and high-end projects, while affordable housing, suitable for actual housing needs, lacks supply.
Reduced liquidity not only reduces businesses' revenue but also "tains" capital in projects, while land use fees, operating costs and loan interest continue to arise.
Debt increases sharply
When capital is "stuck" in inventory, financial pressure increases. In the context of difficult access to bank credit, many businesses continue to use bonds to supplement capital, although this is a capital channel with high costs and potential risks.
Data compiled by credit rating agency S&I Ratings, loans of listed real estate businesses continue to expand. Total outstanding loans as of the end of June reached 360,240 billion VND, an increase of more than 20%, or nearly 60,900 billion VND compared to the end of March.
The loan-to-equity ratio of the entire industry has increased to 0.72 times from 0.61 times at the end of Q1/2026. This is the highest level in the last 15 quarters. This index reflects the level of financial leverage use of enterprises. The increase to 0.72 times means that for every 1 VND of equity, 0.72 VND of loan will be included, showing that financial leverage and dependence on loan capital of enterprises are higher.
At the same time, the proportion of long-term debt also increased to 67.3% of total outstanding debt. This level is an increase compared to 63.1% in the previous quarter, showing that the capital flow serves disbursement for project implementation and development, not short-term liquidity rotation pressure.
However, access to capital is differentiated as banks are increasingly cautious with projects with incomplete legal status or high leverage. Investors with financial capacity, feasible business plans, and stable cash flow have more favorable access to credit, while projects with legal obstacles and low liquidity still face difficulties.
The risk lies in the fact that the leverage of real estate businesses is increasing simultaneously on many channels. In addition to bank loans, large investors also use bonds to supplement capital for projects, causing financial obligations in the coming years to increase accordingly.
According to data from the Hanoi Stock Exchange, in the first 8 months of 2026 alone, real estate businesses have offered many bond lots, with an average issuance interest rate of approximately 12.2% per year. In particular, some bond lots have interest rates up to more than 13.5%/year.
This interest rate level shows that businesses are having to accept high capital costs to have money to maintain operations. But for many investors, it is still a necessary choice if the project is being implemented and needs capital to complete and hand over.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Senior Director of DG Capital Financial Analysis Division - said that the real estate group is under the greatest maturity pressure and the debt handling ability of the group is very differentiated. Businesses with complete legal projects, positive sales cash flow and access to new capital have conditions to buy back or pay on time. While weak financial groups may still have to continue to use other support measures such as negotiating extensions, asset swaps or accepting new issuances with higher interest rates.
This makes the risk of refinancing of real estate businesses significantly increase. That is the possibility that businesses cannot borrow a new amount of money to pay or replace the old debt when it comes due. This may lead to a shortfall or loss of liquidity" - Dr. Phuong assessed.
