According to data compiled by credit rating agency S&I Ratings, loans of listed real estate businesses continue to expand. Total outstanding loans as of the end of June 2026 reached 360,240 billion VND, an increase of more than 20%, or nearly 60,900 billion VND compared to the end of March 2026.
The loan-to-equity ratio of the entire industry has increased to 0.72 times from 0.61 times at the end of Q1/2026. This is the highest level in the last 15 quarters. This index reflects the level of financial leverage use of enterprises. The rate increased to 0.72 times, meaning that for every 1 VND of equity, there will be 0.72 VND of loan debt, showing that financial leverage and dependence on loan capital of enterprises are higher.
At the same time, the proportion of long-term debt also increased to 67.3% of total outstanding debt. This level is an increase compared to 63.1% in the previous quarter, showing that the capital flow serves disbursement for project deployment and development, not short-term liquidity rotation pressure.
According to data from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), as of June 30, 2026, outstanding credit for real estate business activities reached more than 2.5 million billion VND, an increase of more than 518,000 billion VND compared to the end of 2025. However, this capital flow is strongly differentiated between businesses and projects. Investors with financial capacity, feasible business plans, and stable cash flow have more favorable access to credit, while projects with legal obstacles and low liquidity still face difficulties.
Along with bank credit, corporate bonds continue to become an important capital mobilization channel for investors. S&I Ratings estimates that in the first 6 months of the year, the total value of corporate bonds issued reached about 275,400 billion VND, of which real estate accounted for 128,200 billion VND, equivalent to 46.5%.
Notably, to attract capital through bond channels, many real estate businesses are mobilizing bonds with an average interest rate of more than 12% per year, especially some cases up to 13.5% such as Khai Hoan Land.
It can be seen that the general interest rate level of real estate bonds has increased sharply compared to the period before 2026. The floor level for floating interest payments used to fluctuate from 9.5-10%, but now it is higher.
According to S&I Ratings, in the context of real estate business credit being controlled, corporate bonds continue to play a role in compensating for capital in the coming time. This channel helps businesses be proactive in terms of maturity and asset structure.
With projects with sufficient legal status and businesses with high credit ratings, negotiating a low interest rate margin or a tiered interest rate structure will bring advantages in cost of capital compared to current bank loan interest rates.
Conversely, investors with weak financial foundations, high leverage ratios and less liquid project portfolios face greater risks in capital rotation. This will create a natural purification process for investors in the new stage.
However, according to the assessment of some experts, this makes the risk of refinancing of real estate businesses increase significantly.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of Financial Analysis Division of DG Capital, said that the risk lies in the leverage of real estate businesses that is increasing simultaneously on many channels. In addition to bank loans, large investors also use bonds to supplement capital for projects, causing financial obligations in the coming years to increase accordingly.
The risk of refinancing is the possibility that businesses cannot borrow a new amount of money to pay or replace the old debt when it comes due. This may lead to a shortfall or loss of liquidity," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
Liquidity pressure is present
According to a report from the Ministry of Construction, real estate inventory in Q2/2026 exceeded 39,000 units, of which individual housing inventory increased by more than 46%. Notably, the number of successful real estate transactions nationwide decreased by 36% compared to the same period last year.
For real estate businesses, reduced liquidity not only lowers revenue. Unsold products mean that a portion of capital remains in the project, while land use fees and expenses including loan interest expenses continue to arise. The longer the cash flow is "stuck" in inventory, the greater the financial pressure.
