Housing price bottlenecks and inventory pressure of real estate businesses

Bảo Chương |

Looking at the balance sheet of real estate businesses, the scale of inventory shows that a very large amount of capital is being "locked" in land, construction costs, and projects.

According to VietstockFinance data, by the end of June 2026, the total value of inventory of 106 real estate companies listed on the exchange continued to reach a record level of more than 635,700 billion VND, an increase of 20% compared to the beginning of the year. Notably, at some leading businesses, inventory has exceeded the threshold of 100,000 billion VND, even in some cases exceeding 200,000 billion VND by the end of the second quarter of 2026.

Names with large inventory can be mentioned such as Novaland with 157,712 billion VND of inventory as of June 30, 2026. Notably, Novaland has maintained inventory of over 100,000 billion VND for many years.

Kinh Bac has VND 33,357 billion, up 23% in 6 months; Khang Dien VND 29,488 billion, up 26%; Becamex Group VND 22,828 billion; Bluemarq Group VND 15,985 billion; Phat Dat VND 13,555 billion. Hoang Huy Group and Sunshine Group recorded VND 13,681 billion and VND 10,184 billion respectively. Taseco Land also joined the group of enterprises with inventory of over VND 10,000 billion when the figure increased by 59%, to VND 11,648 billion.

More worryingly, the proportion of inventory in total assets at some businesses has reached a very high level. By the end of June 2026, this ratio in Khang Dien was 74.7%, Hoang Huy Group 61.4%, Novaland 60.9%...

Inventory figures of tens or hundreds of billions of VND are not always a negative sign for real estate businesses with good land funds, complete legal projects and products that meet needs. However, the problem for real estate businesses at this time should not just be to accumulate land funds, but to sell how many products and generate how much cash flow.

The inventory picture of real estate businesses in the current period is showing an increasing discrepancy between the products businesses put on the market and the affordability of buyers. Many businesses are both increasing inventory scale and being affected by high capital costs, while purchasing power is limited by house prices.

Ms. Cao Thi Thanh Huong, Deputy Market Director of Savills HCMC, assessed that the biggest bottleneck of the market currently lies in the price level. The main supply is high-end, while affordable products are increasingly scarce. The demand of the group of customers buying real houses is very large, but the current obstacle is still the price mismatch when most customers are looking for apartments priced under 50 million VND/m2. Meanwhile, 80% of the newly offered supply has prices exceeding the above level. This difference makes it impossible for actual needs to transform into successful transactions in the market.

In addition, the market is sparsely populated with buyers also because the group of investors is absent. The disappearance of speculative capital is the main reason for the general absorption rate of the market to decrease. Short-term speculative capital seems to have withdrawn from the market also due to financial pressure. With a floating interest rate of about 11-14% per year, buyers tend to switch to more safe financial channels. Interest rate developments promote investment cash flow to shift from real estate to higher-yield channels such as savings deposits.

Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Senior Director of DG Capital Financial Investment Division, said that if house prices continue to increase faster than income, supply continues to lean towards high-end while affordable products are lacking, then increased inventory is an unavoidable consequence.

The story of strong inventory increases does not stop at the level of risk for each business.When products are not consumed, the ability to repay debts and circulate cash flow of businesses is also affected.This may lead to credit risks for the banking system - the key capital source of projects," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.



Bảo Chương
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