Deposit interest rate increases to 7-8%/year
The race to increase deposit interest rates is taking place quite excitingly, especially at small-scale joint stock banks that are launching interest rate addition programs, bringing the highest deposit interest rate in the market to 7-8% per year. State-owned banks such as Vietcombank, BIDV, Agribank and VietinBank are also not left out of the race when they simultaneously adjust the deposit interest rate table at the counter and online.
Accordingly, interest rates for term deposits of 12 months or more at this group of banks have returned to the same level as at the end of 2023, while short-term interest rates are still about 0.5% lower than the previous peak period.
The leader of a joint stock commercial bank said that the trend of increasing deposit interest rates is there, but at a small level, it is not a sign of interest rate reversal. The increase in savings interest rates, in addition to the annual crop factor, also reflects the internal trend of the economy. Credit demand is forecast to be very high due to the acceleration of investment, causing large banks to compete to mobilize early.
However, this is not a period of liquidity shortage, but banks must find ways to mobilize capital using interest rates outside the books. The State Bank has not yet increased its operating interest rate.
Pressure on loan interest rates, real estate businesses worry
Currently, this is the period when real estate businesses are implementing business plans and restarting projects, with growth expectations from 2026.
However, the widespread increase in savings interest rates is putting pressure on output interest rates. Lending interest rates in 2026 are forecast to exceed 10%/year, causing real estate businesses to be quite concerned.
Currently, home loan interest rates at the end of 2025 tend to increase by about 1-2% after some banks stop incentive packages and are expected to increase more strongly in 2026. This development makes home buyers, especially young customers who rely heavily on credit leverage, consider more carefully.
The investor of a large real estate project in Ho Chi Minh City said that his company is planning to launch an apartment project with a scale of more than 5,000 products in 2026. However, with the current developments of deposit interest rates and loan interest rates, the company's sales plan is likely to need to be adjusted.
"Customers who want to buy real estate or invest have to borrow from banks. Remember in the period of 2022-2024, when lending interest rates increased to over 13%/year, the real estate market immediately fell into liquidity difficulties. It will not be until 2025, when lending interest rates fall below 10%, that people will return to the market. However, if deposit interest rates continue to increase, lending interest rates in 2026 are likely to exceed 10%/year, causing great pressure on the consumption of products of businesses," the investor of the above project stated.
According to the MBS Research report "2026 outlook - Residential real estate industry", the 2026-2027 period is considered a new expansion cycle, thanks to the momentum from infrastructure investment, legal bottlenecks are gradually removed and capital channels are gradually opened.
However, along with the positive outlook are notable cost risks, such as land use fees increasing according to the new price list, lending interest rates increasing compared to the bottom period, while the market's absorption capacity may be under pressure when the selling price level increases faster than income.
The cost of capital of many real estate businesses has also begun to signal a reversal when from the end of 2025, some commercial banks have adjusted lending interest rates to increase by about 0.5% for new loans, while the time to enjoy fixed interest rates tends to be shortened.
It is forecasted that interest rates in 2026 may be higher than in 2025, but the increase is not large. However, with the nature of a long project implementation time, just a small change in interest rates is enough to create additional pressure on financial costs, especially in cases of legal progress or slow disbursement, MBS experts commented.
