Supply improves, prices continue to increase strongly
CBRE Vietnam's latest market research report data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the average primary price (investor opening for sale) of the apartment segment in Ho Chi Minh City reached VND90 million per square meter, up 5% quarter-on-quarter and 21% over the same period last year. Not only did the primary price increase, but the secondary level (buyer and seller) also increased by about 18%, to an average of 64 million VND per square meter.
Not only that, the price increase has also begun to spread to neighboring localities, not only the central area of Ho Chi Minh City. For example, according to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, the Ba Ria - Vung Tau area after being merged into Ho Chi Minh City currently has an average price of about 54 million VND/m2 per square meter for apartments in this area, an increase of 48% compared to the price of 36 million VND/m2 in 2024. With the current price level, Ba Ria - Vung Tau is the area with the second highest apartment price in the Southern region, after the old Ho Chi Minh City.
It is worth mentioning that housing prices in the Southern region have increased in the context of improved supply after many years of stagnation. According to CBRE, the total new supply in the 5 key localities is approximately 26,000 products, double in 2024. Binh Duong (old) leads with 15,800 apartments, Tay Ninh about 2,000 apartments, Dong Nai 600 apartments. Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City (old) recorded about 7,600 apartments, an increase of 50% compared to the previous year.
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, explained that although real estate supply has improved, prices are still high because most of the new baskets of goods are in the high-end and luxury segment, pushing up the general level. She said that in the old Ho Chi Minh City area alone, 90% of the shopping malls opened for sale this year are in the high-end and luxury segment. This rate in the old Binh Duong was about 60%. For the Long An area, a series of new projects were opened for sale at 40-60 million VND per square meter, pushing the area to increase dramatically.
Real estate prices cannot decrease in the coming time
Commenting on 2026, Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, Director of the housing market of CBRE Vietnam, said that the new supply could reach about 50,000 products, of which apartments account for 65%, an increase of nearly 30% compared to the present thanks to the completion of many key infrastructure projects. The expected price level is clearly differentiated: Ho Chi Minh City maintains a high level, while satellite provinces have more flexible adjustment amplificates.
Experts also warn that the imbalance between supply and demand is likely to continue in 2026, but the market is unlikely to experience a real estate bubble scenario. However, after a decade, the rate of increasing housing prices has nearly doubled income, putting great pressure on real buyers. Housing prices in 2026 are forecast to continue to increase compared to 2025, due to concerns about projects increasing costs and real estate prices escalating as the draft land price list of Ho Chi Minh City continues to increase by 30-40%.
The draft of the new land price list of Ho Chi Minh City is expected to be applied from January 1, 2026, recording an increase of 30-40% in many inner-city areas, especially the old Binh Duong and Ba Ria - Vung Tau, land prices on some roads are proposed to increase by 2-3 times compared to the current price list.
According to the Department of Agriculture and Environment of Ho Chi Minh City, the new land price list has not had a major impact on the group of real estate enterprises because land use fees are still mainly determined according to the surplus method (based on project revenue minus development costs and profits), not completely dependent on the price list.
However, experts say that the impact will be more obvious in the second phase, which is the time when businesses collect land funds through receiving transfers from people. Currently, land fees account for 40-50% of the total project development cost, even up to 60% if the land fund is bought back from the secondary market.
This means that businesses must spend a large amount of capital from the beginning, using both equity and bank loans, and pay interest throughout the project before being launched on the market.
When the land price list increases, market sentiment often causes expectations of land prices to increase. The cost of site clearance and land acquisition to implement the project is likely to increase significantly, and this price increase will eventually be reflected in housing prices.
