Housing prices in the Southern region continue to increase in the context of improved supply after many years of stagnation. This is explained by market research experts, despite increased supply, prices are still anchored high because most of the new baskets of goods are in the high-end and luxury segment, pushing up the general level.
In Ho Chi Minh City alone (previously), 90% of the shopping malls opened for sale this year are in the high-end and luxury segment. This rate in Binh Duong (formerly) was about 60%. For the Long An area (previously), a series of new projects were opened for sale at 40-60 million VND/m2, pushing the area to increase dramatically.
Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet - Director of CBRE Vietnam Housing Market - said that primary prices in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have increased by 35-45% after only one year. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City increased by 15-18%, an average of about 90 million VND per square meter with 70% of new goods this year in the high-end and luxury real estate segment, pushing the price level far above the average income of the majority of urban residents.
For the past decade, average income has increased by 6-8% per year, while house prices have increased by 12-20% per year, making buyers increasingly exhausted.
CBRE data also shows that after 10 years, the average house price in Ho Chi Minh City has increased about 2.9 times (from 30 million to 86 million VND/m2). Meanwhile, the average income of workers increased about 1.5 times after a decade (according to the Statistics Office). Thus, the rate of increasing housing prices is nearly double compared to increasing income.
The new supply in the inner city of Ho Chi Minh City is currently operating in the direction of serving investment needs, not real housing needs. Most investors determine that buyers will not live but only hold or lease, so the products are positioned at a higher level to maximize profits.
With the current price level, cash flow in the market is almost only circulating between investors, while buyers for living have a hard time accessing it.
The sharp increase in housing prices over the years has led many experts to think of the period of Chinese real estate a decade ago, when the market was constantly feverish, liquidity was high, capital flows were huge and the investment mentality of the crowd took the throne - before collapsing en masse when credit was tightened. This raises concerns that Vietnam could repeat a similar scenario if it does not control risks well.
Assessing the above risk, Mr. Kiet said that Vietnam does not follow China's trajectory, so it cannot completely repeat this scenario. However, there are still risks for the high-end segment if prices are pushed too far for real purchasing power. The bubble can appear even in the context of a lack of supply when speculators are hoarding goods, expecting short-term profits and capital flowing into the market exceeding absorption.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital - commented that the risk of bubbles in the high-end segment is real, but for the whole market it is still low. The Vietnamese market is suffering from a long-term supply shortage. Urban infrastructure develops more slowly than the need to expand the population, legal procedures are prolonged and the central land fund is narrowing, causing the number of new projects on the market to not meet demand.
It is this difference in supply and demand that makes Vietnam less likely to fall into the same crisis scenario as China in the short term.
However, according to Dr. Phuong, the line between strong growth and asset bubbles is very fragile if prices continue to outperform the purchasing power of society. A prolonged supply-demand imbalance and continuous price increases could lead to a crisis.
This can be considered a phenomenon of real estate bubbles and the bubbles cannot last forever. At some point, it will break down, causing heavy damage to the economy, as learned from the global financial crisis in 2008 originating from the US.
