A report from the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction said that in 2024, the city will have 6 commercial housing projects eligible for capital mobilization with 3,845 apartments (3,801 apartments and 44 low-rise houses). In particular, these products are all in the high-end segment.
In addition, Ho Chi Minh City has 17 projects approved for investment policies and investors, including: 1 social housing project, 16 commercial housing projects, with a total area of over 700,000 m2 and a total investment of over VND 40,000 billion.
The city has also completed 15 real estate projects; 14 projects have been granted construction permits and 33 projects (29 commercial housing projects, 3 social housing projects and 1 worker accommodation project), with about 23,000 apartments.
The Ho Chi Minh City housing market in 2024 continues to lack the supply of housing projects, leading to a shortage of housing product supply. Worryingly, from 2021 to now, in new housing projects, there is no longer any affordable commercial housing with a selling price of less than 30 million VND/m2 and a shortage of social housing.
The results of social housing development in Ho Chi Minh City by the end of 2024 will only be about 6,000 apartments, reaching only 8.6% of the plan and nationwide, only 57,652 social housing apartments have been completed, reaching 5.7% of the plan for the period 2021-2030.
From the practical situation above, it can be predicted that the real estate market in 2025 will still have many difficulties. Mr. Le Hoang Chau - Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association - commented that the high-end housing segment from 2020-2023 will continuously occupy the majority of the market with about 70% and by 2024, for the first time, housing projects are allowed to raise capital on the market, with only high-end housing, no mid-range housing and affordable housing. This has led to an unbalanced and unsustainable development market like the pyramid model.
In addition, housing prices have increased continuously in recent years and are still "anchored" at very high prices such as the price of luxury apartments in 2024 up to 90 million VND/m2, an average of about 9.7 billion VND/unit (the primary price when the project was approved, not the selling price), beyond the financial capacity of the majority of people with average income and people with low urban incomes.
Meanwhile, in Ho Chi Minh City, hundreds of projects are stuck in legal issues, mainly or some projects due to investors' inadequacy. If it is not resolved soon to restart, it will not only waste land resources but also lose state budget revenue, causing difficulties for businesses. The market lacks housing supply, so housing prices are unlikely to decrease in the short term.
Experts assess that the rapid increase in housing prices, exceeding income from salaries, not only puts pressure on social security, but also promotes real estate speculation. Speculative cash flow is often waiting for price increases, not going into production and business, causing a negative impact on inflation and currency value.
Ms. Giang Huynh - Director of Research and S22M at Savills Vietnam - also believes that if housing prices continue to increase faster than income, the gap between rich and poor will increase. People with average incomes and below have difficulty accessing housing, leading to serious consequences for market and social stability.
