According to data from market research companies, housing prices have grown by an average of double digits each year over the past decade. For example, in 2012-2013, the price of mid-range apartments in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) was about 22-25 million VND/m2, and high-end apartments were about 30 million VND/m2. However, after more than a decade, the price of mid-range apartments has reached 50-65 million VND/m2.
A report from market research unit One Housing (Techcombank) shows that in 2024, the average primary selling price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City will be about 84 million VND/m2, an increase of 15% over the same period in 2023. In the East alone (Thu Duc City, where the price increase rate is the highest in the region), the average price will reach over 100 million VND/m2, an increase of 18.3% over the same period in 2023. According to One Housing, both the city in general and the East in particular have recorded a sudden increase due to a shortage of supply and are affected by the strong boom of luxury and super luxury real estate products.
Meanwhile, research data from the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) shows that since 2018, policies related to capital sources and decisions of agencies and departments in controlling the real estate market have caused a serious decline in housing supply. Meanwhile, the demand for housing has continuously increased, causing real estate prices, especially in large cities, to increase more strongly, far exceeding the growth rate of people's income.
As for the affordable apartment segment (price under 25 million VND/m2) - affordable housing - has disappeared in recent years in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. This makes owning a house from the commercial housing supply extremely difficult.
The trend of increasing real estate prices is inevitable. However, according to many experts, the sharp increase in real estate prices in a very short time in both new and old supply is unusual.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Investment Director of DGCapital - said that with the current real estate market situation, real estate prices are increasing, mainly because supply is still very scarce compared to demand. Investment costs are increasing, causing investors to have higher expectations for profits.
However, Mr. Phuong also said that the sharp increase in prices in recent times, even when the market was in a crisis period, does not exclude the impact of interest groups while the economic context, the market as well as people's income have not recovered. High housing prices, but no transactions, and the revenue of real estate businesses have not clearly recovered are things worth paying attention to.
According to Mr. Phuong, the price-inflating tricks stem from the fact that the supply of apartments is problematic. In recent years, the market has not had any new projects approved for investment licenses. The projects on the market are mainly old projects and are bought and sold again. The supply is both lacking and of poor quality, the supply for people and low-income people is very little, and the product structure is not suitable.
Ho Chi Minh City inspects and checks real estate projects to combat price manipulation and speculation.
Vice Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Bui Xuan Cuong has just requested relevant agencies to strictly implement the Prime Minister's direction on focusing on rectifying and handling price manipulation, real estate speculation and inspecting and examining real estate investment projects.
Accordingly, the City Inspectorate and the Department of Construction are required to strengthen inspection, examination and review of real estate business activities of enterprises, investors, real estate trading floors and real estate brokers in Ho Chi Minh City, especially in areas and projects with unusual price increases.
This is to promptly rectify, prevent and strictly handle violations, focusing on the legality, conditions and public information of real estate put into business with abnormal price increases, not to take advantage of or disrupt the market.
