The real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 is expected to welcome many new sources of supply, many of which are inventory and old projects that have just had their legal problems resolved. And if you look at the sales plans of real estate businesses, you can see that the selling price level is being adjusted quite high compared to the previous period.
Dien Phuc Thanh Company is about to launch more than 350 apartments at the MT Eastmark City project. After many sales, the selling price of MT Eastmark City apartments has increased from 34-36 million VND/m2 to 45-46 million VND/m2. In the upcoming sales, the expected price will fluctuate around 50 million VND/m2.
The DatXanhHomes Riverside project in Thu Duc City, invested by Dat Xanh Group, is being re-implemented. Previously, the project was called Gem Riverside, built on a 6.7-hectare land plot in the old District 2, with a scale of about 3,200 apartments. In 2018, the project was introduced to the market with an expected selling price of about 33 million VND/m2. However, due to legal procedures, the implementation process was suspended for a long time. Currently, although the official price has not been announced, the market has predicted an expected price of 100 million VND/m2, 3 times higher than the initial announcement.
Another project, Metro Star by CT Group, located on the frontage of Vo Nguyen Giap Street (formerly known as Hanoi Highway), was first opened for sale in 2018 at a price of about 38-40 million VND/m2, but had to stop implementation later due to legal problems. It was not until 2024 that the project was officially recognized as an investor and construction resumed. Currently, the selling price of Metro Star apartments is expected to be about 70 million VND/m2, an increase of nearly 75% compared to the initial opening time, shophouses are about 120-130 million VND/m2.
It can be seen that this is the supply from inventory and from projects that have just had their legal procedures cleared. In addition, according to forecasts from market research companies, in 2025, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to launch 50,000 apartments from 17 projects, notably The Global City, Diamond Valley Van Phuc and Eco Smart City.
Experts also commented that the demand for housing is increasing, while it is very difficult to carry out projects at this time, partly because it is difficult to find a large enough clean land fund and the time to complete legal procedures is long, and partly because input costs such as construction materials, labor costs, loan interest costs, land prices, etc. are all increasing. Therefore, housing prices can only increase and are unlikely to decrease.
According to VIS Rating, investors will now have to pay higher land use fees under the new regulations. New land prices in many prime locations with many large projects under development are expected to increase up to 10 times compared to before. High profit margins from high-end housing projects will partly offset these increased costs. Typically, high-end projects record gross profit margins of 45-50%, higher than the 25-35% margin of the mid-range segment and 10% for social housing projects.
Weak cash flow is a major weakness in the credit profile of investors in Vietnam, as about 70% of businesses monitored by VIS Rating have weak operating cash flow to pay off debt.
“We expect this index to improve in 2025 as sales cash flow improves, led by major developers with strong sales plans in major cities. We expect sales revenue to increase by 25-50% in 2025, mainly from high-end projects with high profit margins,” VIS Rating said.
