The real estate market is sending mixed signals as liquidity decreases sharply, and selling prices show no signs of cooling down.
According to the Investment Strategy Report for the last 6 months of 2026 of Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company, the growth momentum of the real estate industry will be strengthened in the second half of the year thanks to more active sales, stable interest rates and FDI capital flows, and a clear trade picture.
For the residential real estate segment, Vietcap believes that the volume of transactions in the primary market will continue to grow in 2026, with a clearer trend in the second half of the year when the interest rate level gradually stabilizes. The growth momentum comes from real housing demand, increased new supply, complete infrastructure and preferential sales policies.
According to forecasts, the average annual real estate sales in the 2026-2027 period of the medium-cap investor group including KDH, NLG, NVL, DXG and HDC will increase by about 10% compared to the average of the previous 5 years.
Meanwhile, a market research report by Dat Xanh Services (DXS-FERI) Institute of Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research shows that the market picture in the first 6 months of the year is still challenging.
New supply opened for sale in the first half of the year reached about 37,300 products, an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year. Secondary supply also became more diverse in many markets and segments when a series of projects were handed over in 2026.
However, DXS-FERI experts said that real estate purchase loan interest rates in the first 6 months of the year were commonly at 12-14%/year, while some floating loans recorded actual levels of up to 15-16%/year.
The rapid increase in borrowing costs after the preferential period has created great pressure on both real buyers and investors, causing the psychology of observation and waiting to continue to dominate the market as customers become more cautious in using financial leverage.
According to DXS-FERI, the impact from the general level of interest rates has significantly reduced transaction activities. Total primary real estate absorption in the first 6 months of the year is estimated to reach only about 26,100 products, down 62% compared to the last 6 months of 2025. The absorption rate on the entire market only fluctuates from 20-30%, about 30 percentage points lower than the end of last year. In which, the Northern region accounts for about 50% of the total absorption of the whole country, while the South accounts for about 40%.
Notably, liquidity is weakening but selling prices continue to increase. According to DXS-FERI, the primary price level in the first 6 months of the year increased in most types and regions compared to the same period in 2025. Apartments continue to lead the market with an increase of about 10-15% in the North and South, while the Central and Western regions increased by about 5-7%.
This unit believes that the price increase is mainly due to new supply concentrated in the mid- and high-end segments, increasing project development costs, scarce land funds in major cities, while real housing demand is still maintained stably, helping projects with favorable locations and full legal status continue to maintain the price level.
Agreeing with this view, Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association - also said that house prices are difficult to decrease when project development costs are high.
The State is making efforts to coordinate to gradually bring prices to a reasonable level, helping people to access housing. However, there are still many factors that are very difficult to reduce such as land, input costs, labor, raw material prices and many import costs with world prices that have not been regulated. This is also one of the challenges that makes it difficult to reduce development costs" - Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh said.
