The market is still quiet
Since the beginning of the year, the real estate market has continuously seen information about the prices of many types of real estate continuously increasing, such as apartments, houses in alleys, townhouses, villas, and most recently, auctioned land with record high auctions...
Besides, information about the scarcity of real estate supply continuously appears, causing the atmosphere of real estate fever and real estate shortage to spread widely in the market.
However, many experts believe that the real estate market has not yet recovered, the general market context is quite quiet, only some segments show signs of heating up due to information appearing on the market.
Analyzing the current market situation, Dr. Dinh The Hien - economic expert - said that the real estate market is currently divided into two extremes. The first extreme is that the State management agencies are making efforts, step by step, to make the market transparent and stable. Legal and price factors are increasingly clear to stabilize the market.
The second extreme, there are currently many projects that have not been launched, investors and real estate developers may have created information around, making the market seem hot, causing investors to have a fomo mentality (fear of missing out) and they have to rush to put money down for fear of losing the opportunity, fear that real estate prices will continue to increase if they miss it".
"These two pieces of information are like two extremes appearing at the same time, causing the market to have a lot of conflicting information," the expert shared.
Is there really a shortage of supply?
According to analysis by expert Dinh The Hien, information about the real estate market's scarce supply and continuously increasing prices is not entirely correct, reflecting only a small part of the market.
Mr. Hien said: “If we really penetrate the market, we will see that any area has land for sale at a very reasonable price, not too high. But a lot of information today says that the market is lacking in supply. I think we have to calmly look at this issue. Because in reality, the real estate market is still quite quiet, banks are still having difficulty handling mortgaged assets, which are properties for sale, many banks cannot sell, so how can there be a shortage of supply?”
According to the expert, in the inner city of Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City, there may be a shortage of supply due to the lack of new projects with suitable prices. However, this scarcity only occurs in the primary market, home buyers still have many options in the secondary market.
“In Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, when I surveyed the suburban areas, I saw many projects that had come into operation but were left empty, with no one living there. So it is not correct to say that we lack apartment and townhouse projects, because many projects are still empty. Moreover, there is still a lot of land for projects, the suburban areas of Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi still have a lot of empty, abandoned land, which can completely meet market demand. That shows that the market does not lack real estate, it is just lacking speculative products,” said expert Dinh The Hien.
Regarding the creation of a land fever atmosphere, causing the market to heat up, Mr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association - observed from land auctions: "Many investors participating in auctions are people with a "profession" in land auctions, they often participate with the purpose of "surfing", winning the auction and then buying and selling immediately to make a profit or are ready to forfeit their deposit if the market does not respond.
The more dangerous purpose is to create a land fever, to inflate the prices of related land plots. Even disregarding the risks, legalizing the price by paying in full according to the winning bid price, to use this price as a basis to stimulate land prices in outlying districts, causing land prices in many places to escalate, even causing virtual fever" - VARS Chairman analyzed.
