The general level of home loan interest rates has reversed since the end of 2025 and continues to rise in 2026, marking the end of the cheap loan period that lasted for two years. Meanwhile, real estate prices not only did not cool down but also edged up in many segments, making the ability of young people in big cities to own houses increasingly fragile.
Loan interest increases by 1-2 percentage points, buyers pay an additional 1.8-2.5 million VND per month
After the sharp reduction period of 2023-2024, the credit market entered a new interest rate hike cycle. Currently, home purchase loan interest rates are commonly at 10.5-11.5%/year for 12-month fixed packages and 11.5-13%/year for unsecured loans. The increase of 1-1.8 percentage points compared to the previous two years has caused loans lasting for decades to immediately increase costs significantly.
With an apartment worth 2.2 billion VND and a 70% loan for 20 years, monthly installments increase by 1.8-2.5 million VND. Total interest for the first 5 years increases by 90-120 million VND. For young people with an income of 18-30 million VND/month, having to spend up to half of their income to pay debts creates great financial pressure in the context of escalating living expenses.
House prices increase by 5-8%, sub-35 million VND/m2 segment "disappears" from the inner city
Harshness does not only come from interest rates. House prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City continue to trend upwards, increasing by 5-8% in the mid-range segment. Apartments under 35 million VND/m2 are almost no longer appearing in the inner city area. Land plots and suburban townhouses are also recovering at the pace of infrastructure construction.
The supply of apartments under 2 billion VND, which was originally a "rescue" segment for buyers, is shrinking rapidly. In Binh Duong, Dong Nai or Bac Ninh, apartment prices have exceeded 30-35 million VND/m2. Options within the people's financial reach are increasingly shrinking.
Banks tighten loan standards, people have difficulty accessing credit to buy houses
Not only did interest rates increase, but the door to credit also became narrower. Many banks reduced the ratio of lending to asset value to 60-65%, and at the same time required borrowers to prove stable income for 6-12 months.
People in freelance jobs, online business, and seasonal labor are currently an increasingly large group in the urban youth labor force facing great difficulties when having to inventory spending, prove cash flow and debt repayment capacity. Many people, even though they have accumulated, still do not meet the standards for borrowing to buy a house.
High-priced banks unintentionally maintain real estate price levels
Dr. Can Van Luc - chief economist of BIDV - said that the bank's tendency to value collateral at a high level to expand lending limits inadvertently contributes to keeping the real estate price level at a high level, creating more pressure on the group of people looking for housing.
Regarding market prospects in 2026, Mr. Luc assessed that real estate is entering a period that is both favorable and facing many challenges.
In the favorable group, Resolution 254 of the National Assembly removes some legal obstacles of the Land Law; preparing to put the Real Estate and Land Use Rights Transaction Center into operation from 2026 will increase transparency, support the formation of a database to serve operations, including the ability to apply real estate taxes in the future. In addition, public investment and urbanization continue to be an important driving force of the market in the coming years.
However, the biggest challenge is still that real estate prices are too high compared to average income. Mr. Luc said that the Government will have to have solutions to control prices, especially in the apartment segment - where real housing demand is the highest.
He also emphasized that fiscal and monetary policy will play an important role in market control in the coming time. The State Bank sets a credit growth target for this year of about 15% and requires real estate credit not to exceed this level. Meanwhile, interest rates are under increasing pressure as credit last year increased by 19%, significantly higher than the capital mobilization increase of about 15%, narrowing system liquidity.
In addition, commercial real estate is not in the priority credit group. Banks only focus on lending to social housing and industrial parks, while commercial housing, resort real estate or commercial service segments are more strongly affected by interest rate fluctuations.
From increased interest rates, high house prices, limited supply of suitable products to increasingly strict borrowing standards and tax policy risks, it shows that the pressure to buy houses from people is likely to continue in the period 2026-2027.
