Real estate market research units are making optimistic forecasts for supply and demand in 2026. According to JLL Vietnam, it is estimated that the Southern market may welcome more than 28,000 apartments and 12,000 landed houses, concentrated in Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai and adjacent localities, in the context that housing demand in large cities remains high.
According to the Dat Xanh Services Institute for Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research, 2026 will be the period when the market moves to a more proactive and sustainable growth momentum. New supply may reach about 136,000 products, an increase of more than 40% compared to 2025, bringing the total primary supply to nearly 200,000 products.
Primary selling prices are forecast to increase slightly by 5-10%, while lending interest rates are expected to remain in the range of 10-12%. In the most feasible scenario, the absorption rate may reach 40-50%, creating motivation to release goods for large investors.
It is not difficult to see that the "huge" number of products in 2026 and the following years mainly comes from megacities and large projects, in which developers play the role of creating the largest supply.
Data from the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) shows that the main "players" who are dominating the "largest segments" in the housing market include: Vingroup (21.8%), Masterise Homes (11.9%), Sun Group (8.9%), MIK Group (5%), Ecopark (4%), while the remaining businesses account for 35.6% (2025 data). This group of "big players" will continue to play the main "supply-creating" role in the coming time.
However, the real estate market is also under opposite pressure as input costs from land prices and construction materials increase, creating pressure to increase product prices, while supply competition forces investors to have reasonable selling price strategies.
The most influential factor on the market's purchasing power today is lending interest rates. Many banks have just increased real estate loan interest rates for 18-month terms to nearly 14%/year and about 10%/year for 12-month terms, business representatives said that maintaining high loan interest rates for a long time will have a major impact on the market.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that high interest rates will not be attractive to real estate investors, especially speculators, who buy to surf the wave. In addition, real estate developers and project investors who are implementing policies to support fixed loan interest for homebuyers are also under great pressure.
Over the past time, to increase liquidity, many investors have committed to supporting fixed interest rates for homebuyers in the first 2 years. Some investors even committed 0% loan interest for homebuyers. For real estate investors, when the grace period expires and they have to repay debts, they are also very worried that monthly interest may become a burden.
As for homebuyers, Dr. Phuong said that if they have to borrow money from banks to buy a house, they will not dare to spend money when monthly loan interest costs increase but income does not increase.
Competition in the real estate market will become even more fierce due to the increase in supply and macroeconomic factors affecting liquidity. This forces investors to carefully calculate business strategies for this year," Dr. Phuong assessed.
