Back to the racetrack
According to data just released to investors, leaders of Nam Long Investment Joint Stock Company expect real estate sales in 2025 to reach about 11,000-13,000 billion VND compared to the target of 14,600 billion VND approved at the 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders.
Entering 2026, the Board of Directors of Nam Long Company set a target of achieving sales exceeding 20,000 billion VND. Accordingly, the enterprise will promote sales activities in the period 2025-2027, stronger than the period 2022-2024, through continuing to implement the next phases of existing projects.
Another name, Novaland Group, is also having many notable movements. The Group said that in 2026 it will re-deploy and open for sale the Aqua City project in Dong Nai after legal obstacles are resolved. Novaland expects that the restart of this project will help businesses return to the growth trajectory. In addition, NovaWorld Phan Thiet, NovaWorld Ho Tram and many projects in Ho Chi Minh City will also continue to be built.
Statistics from DKRA Consulting show that the Ho Chi Minh City area and old border localities currently have about 18 urban area projects with a scale of over 100 ha, with a total area of up to 16,500 ha.
In which, there are about 8 projects that have been and are being implemented with a scale of more than 3,500 hectares, supplying more than 50,000 products to the market. Some of these projects have been "shelved" for a long time due to legal obstacles and have been restarted by investors.
Supply increases but house prices still increase sharply
It can be seen that real estate businesses are placing high expectations on a strong recovery for the period 2026-2027.
However, with the fact that house prices are continuously pushed up far beyond the ability to pay of people with real needs, along with the story of fluctuating loan interest rates, it raises the question of whether the consumption of the market will be affected or not?
Mr. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet - Director of CBRE Vietnam housing market - said that primary prices in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have increased by 35-45% in just the past year. Looking back at the past decade, average income increased by 6-8% per year, while house prices escalated by 12-20%/year, making buyers increasingly exhausted.
According to most experts, in the current context, it is difficult to expect house prices to decrease, especially with product lines that meet actual needs in major cities such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi.
The reason is that the land fund for project development in the central area is increasingly scarce, while input costs such as construction materials costs, labor costs, loan interest costs, land money... are all increasing.
In addition, the new land price list will be applied in 2026, plus regulations related to taxes and project procedures will increase project development costs. Primary real estate prices will therefore continue to rise, while new supply continues to expand.
With the current price level, the market's absorption capacity may be under pressure when selling prices increase faster than income.
In addition, the real estate market is facing a new test, which is the period of record cheap money to support economic recovery is gradually closing.
The State Bank will have to balance economic growth and control inflation and exchange rates. Real estate credit is forecast to be tightened in terms of loan conditions and interest rate incentives.
Currently, when deposit interest rates tend to increase as they do now, banks can hardly keep lending interest rates unchanged, input costs increase, forcing output interest rates to adjust to ensure balance.
With the increase in lending interest rates, the ability of people and businesses to access capital will become more difficult. Homebuyers will face more financial pressure, especially large borrowing customers who use high leverage.
Capital costs of many real estate businesses have also begun to signal reversal when from the end of 2025, some commercial banks have adjusted lending interest rates to increase by about 0.5% for new loans, while the fixed interest rate enjoyment period tends to be shortened.
