According to the report assessing the results of the implementation of the task of managing the real estate market and developing social housing in 2025 of the Ministry of Construction, serving the fourth meeting - Central Steering Committee and housing policy and real estate market on December 17, 2025, there are 3,297 real estate projects nationwide with a scale of about 5.9 million units, with a total investment of up to 7.42 million billion VND. Of which, commercial housing and urban areas play a leading role with 2,358 projects, equivalent to 5.2 million apartments, with a total investment of 6.74 million billion VND.
Supply has increased sharply but housing projects are still well absorbed. The absorption rate of new projects reached over 60%, even many projects were "sold out" in a short time. Thanks to real housing demand and medium and long-term investment demand, it remains high.
In parallel with the recovery of transactions, real estate prices also continue to increase. In particular, apartments continue to play a leading role in the market, and recorded the strongest increase in the past 3 years.
Research data from the Vietnam Institute for Real Estate Market Research (VARS IRE) shows that new supply in 2025 (preliminary) will increase by 50% compared to 2024. In particular, supply is approaching the "peak" of 2018 when a series of projects were newly approved and restarted, especially 1,759 real estate projects were resolved in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa and Tay Ninh.
At the time of statistics at the end of the third quarter of 2025, compared to 2019, the average selling price of projects in the sample was selected by VARS IRE to calculate the price increase index, respectively: Hanoi 96.2%, Da Nang 72.6% and Ho Chi Minh City 56.9%. Especially in some short periods in Hanoi, the selling price increased from a few hundred million VND to a billion VND in just one month. Other housing segments such as land, villas, townhouses, individual houses, etc. also recorded high prices, up to 30% in the year.
From the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, real estate prices have shown signs of stagnating and moving sideways in some markets, but in reality, there have been no signs of decreasing. losing transactions were only recorded in high-ads or FOMO-psored transactions in previous short-term increases.
In the context that most investors have not been under significant financial pressure, and at the same time, market sentiment has been reinforced by many solutions proposed to serve economic growth goals, especially the simultaneous start of many large-scale projects and works, especially transport infrastructure projects, real estate prices are unlikely to fall sharply.
Regarding inventory, the report of the Ministry of Construction compiled from 22/34 localities shows that real estate inventory in the third quarter of 2025 is about 26,717 units/house. Notably, inventories of apartments and individual houses increased sharply, equal to 137% compared to the second quarter of 2025, while land inventories decreased by nearly 69% compared to 2024.
However, VARS IRE believes that the current increase in inventory is a positive thing, reflecting the expectation of recovery of businesses in the context of a series of projects having legal problems removed and the market having many positive information, creating a premise to supplement supply and improve liquidity in the coming time.
Unlike previous stages, when inventories were mainly completed products but difficult to consume, now, the majority of inventories are products under construction. Among them, many products of projects formed in the future have qualified for sale and recorded very positive transaction results. In addition, many projects under construction have also planned to open for sale in the short term. The current stock picture also reflects the actual developments of the market, when the supply of project land has decreased significantly.
In the context of increasing real estate prices, VARS recommends continuing to promote the development of projects with suitable prices to reduce supply-demand pressure; building a tax and credit policy with a roadmap, clearly distinguishing between speculation and real housing demand; at the same time, accelerating the construction of a data system and digital transformation in the real estate sector to create a basis for market regulation.
For social housing, it is necessary to strongly reform output procedures in the direction of post-inspection, increasing the support role of investors. In particular, with the increase in land price lists in some localities of 25-30%, VARS IRE recommends carefully assessing the impact before implementation, clearly separating land use behavior to apply the appropriate level, avoiding increasing housing prices, reducing investment attractiveness and putting pressure on production and business activities.
