Cash flow shifts strongly into real value assets
Research data from the Vietnam Real Estate Market Evaluation Research Institute (VARS IRE) shows that the Vietnamese real estate market is undergoing a "healthy purification" process, with a clear shift in both investor behavior and market movement logic.
If previously, the common psychology was to be afraid of missing opportunities and spend money according to short-term price increase expectations, now buyers are more cautious and choose more carefully. Besides legal factors and investor capacity, criteria such as actual exploitation capacity, liquidity and sustainable growth potential of real estate are increasingly focused on.
From the end of Q3/2025, the increased interest rate level makes investor sentiment more cautious. However, primary prices are still maintained at a high level due to the increasing input costs of projects. The new land price list taking effect from the beginning of 2026 in the direction of approaching market prices contributes to improving fairness and transparency, but also significantly increases project development costs, when land prices account for 30% of house prices.
Along with that is pressure from construction material prices, financial costs, labor costs and related implementation costs. From around March 2026, many projects recorded a selling price increase of 2% to 5% compared to the previous period because these costs are gradually transferred into the product cost.
In Hanoi, the average selling price of newly opened projects reached about 128 million VND/m2, an increase of 28% compared to 2025; if including Hung Yen, the average price reached about 87 million VND/m2. In Ho Chi Minh City, the average selling price reached about 110 million VND/m2, a slight increase compared to 2025. Meanwhile, in Da Nang, the average selling price reached about 91 million VND/m2, an increase of about 10%, mainly due to the appearance of luxury supply and price adjustments in subsequent sales phases.
Strong momentum for real estate
According to VARS, in the medium and long term, the real estate market is forecast to continue to grow, but in a more selective direction.
One of the main drivers of this cycle is the process of completing and synchronizing the legal system on land, housing and real estate business. This is not only a basis for removing difficulties for projects that are facing obstacles but also paves the way for new projects, and plays the role of a "natural filter", gradually eliminating weak investors who lack financial capacity, deploy or do not meet market transparency requirements.
In addition, infrastructure continues to be the foundational driving force to reshape the development space of the real estate market. Projects such as Long Thanh airport, Gia Binh airport, Ring Road 3, Ring Road 4, Hanoi - Quang Ninh high-speed railway, Ben Thanh - Can Gio and large logistics corridors not only improve connectivity but also create a premise for the formation of large-scale, integrated and more methodical urban areas.
Notably, total medium-term public investment capital in the 2026-2030 period is expected to reach 8.22 million billion VND, 2.7 times higher than the 2021-2025 period, which will become a driving force for the economy in general and the real estate market in particular.
Along with that, macroeconomic factors, especially the developments in the general level of interest rates, continue to play a key role in shaping capital costs, risk appetite and investor yield expectations.
A noteworthy trend in the coming period is the shift from a unipolar urban model to a multi-center. "Sustainable centripetality" is no longer a sensory abandonment of the center, but a directional shift towards satellite cities, megacities, hypercities and newly planned areas with good connectivity infrastructure. This trend helps the market restructure in depth, forming new growth poles, while creating conditions for capital and population to be distributed more reasonably, instead of continuing to be concentrated in the core central area.
