Recently, real estate prices have remained high, far from people's income. Even the apartment segment in big cities continues to maintain its upward momentum, setting a new price level at a record high.
According to Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam, with the current price level and market developments, it is possible to compare the housing price level in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi with the income level of the people to get an overall picture. The gap between the selling price and the income of the people in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi is quite small compared to other cities in the region such as Kuala Lumpur (with income 4 times higher than ours but the housing price is relatively equal). The ability to pay of the people in this city is much higher than ours. Overall, it seems that the increase in people's income has not kept up with the increase in real estate prices in big cities such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi.
In terms of prospects, in the future, the supply of apartments in Hanoi will be relatively abundant. Next, the supply of land (real estate attached to land) is expected to improve, when large urban area projects are opened for sale in the near future.
According to this expert, from now until 2026, Hanoi will receive about 55,000 high-rise and low-rise housing products, while the figure in Ho Chi Minh City is only 35,000. This shows that new supply will continue to be concentrated in Hanoi, while in Ho Chi Minh City, supply will spread to neighboring localities and will not be abundant in the city.
Real estate prices, both primary and secondary markets in Hanoi, are forecast to continue to rise, especially in apartment buildings. This price growth rate is about 20%/year – an unprecedented figure.
Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City recorded a stable price growth of 5-6%/year. The reason why real estate prices in Ho Chi Minh City have almost not increased in the past 2 years, while the Hanoi area has increased sharply, is because the price level in Ho Chi Minh City was established in this area from 2015-2019 with an increase of 15%/year and then stopped.
Faced with the above situation, Ms. Pham Thi Mien - Deputy Director of the Institute of Research and Evaluation of Vietnam Real Estate Market (Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association) said that the continuous increase in real estate prices poses an urgent need to improve the effectiveness of state management of the real estate market.
Along with promoting the supply of social housing in urban areas, promoting the development of connecting infrastructure, shifting housing demand from the central core area to the surrounding area - an area with many options at more affordable prices, with more social housing projects planned for implementation. The State needs to have a regulatory mechanism to reduce speculative factors, helping the real estate market to balance in the long term.
