Coach Pep Guardiola affirmed that Manchester City is prioritizing points over goal difference in the championship race with Arsenal. "The problem is just winning the match" - he said. But with the two teams only differing in the number of goals, the potential importance of this factor cannot be denied.
For that reason, the 1-0 victory over Burnley helped Man City rise to the top of the rankings, which really brought a little encouragement to Arsenal. Above all, Mikel Arteta's team needs to win. But that alone may not be enough. The result of the midweek match may be even worse for them.
Guardiola also pointed out that improving goal difference does not only lie in the attacking aspect: "It's scoring goals and not conceding, not just one side". However, for Arsenal, there is no doubt about bigger question marks to be answered - whether they can improve their attacking level or not.
Arteta can point out that his team has only scored 3 goals less than Man City - a not too large gap, partly thanks to superior efficiency in set pieces. Arsenal have scored 21 goals from non-penalty set pieces - the most in the Premier League - while Man City only has 8.
However, the supply of goals from dead balls is stagnating. Arsenal has only scored 1 goal from set pieces in the last 4 matches in the league, since scoring 2 goals from corner kicks in the victory over Chelsea in early March.
The bigger problem lies in the open play style. At the Etihad Stadium, Arsenal created a higher total xG from live balls than Man City (1.32 compared to 0.98), but could not convert opportunities into goals.
Kai Havertz missed clear chances, despite scoring the equalizer. He had a one-on-one situation where Gianluigi Donnarumma blocked it, then headed over the bar from Leandro Trossard's pass in injury time. In total, the German striker has 5 shots - the most that a rival striker has taken at the Etihad this season.
Havertz's return as center forward brings many positive signals. He plays well in the role of a wall, helping the team connect their playing style and create greater pressure in the penalty area.
Martin Odegaard was the player who created the most chances in the match, and his playing alongside Eberechi Eze significantly improved the quality of attack. Arsenal expects to soon have Bukayo Saka back, who is said to be ready to return. Notably, Saka, Odegaard and Havertz have not started together in the Premier League since the 5-1 victory over Crystal Palace in December 2024.
Data shows the importance of this trio. When they play together, Arsenal averages 1.47 xG from live balls, compared to only 1.11 when one of the three is missing.
However, individual form is still a problem. Saka has only scored 2 goals in the last 14 matches, Odegaard has 1 goal after 21 matches, and Trossard has not scored in 13 consecutive matches.
Backup plans have not made a difference either. Gabriel Martinelli and Noni Madueke have scored a total of 3 goals in the Premier League this season.
In that context, Viktor Gyokeres - Arsenal's number one scorer with 12 goals - can continue to play an important role, especially against weaker opponents. 9 of his goals were scored against teams in the lower half of the table.
Arsenal understands that goal difference can become a decisive factor. But first of all, they need to win and score more if they want to maintain the hope of winning the championship.
