The latest forecast from the European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has just announced that a high probability of an "enhanced" version of El Nino appears, which may affect the weather from regional to global scale in the summer or autumn of this year.
This assessment further reinforces the forecast about super El Nino that was made last month.
During a normal El Nino, warming water in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean will affect which region is facing drought, floods, extreme heat, tropical storms and sea ice depletion.
With super El Nino events, which are quite rare, occurring on average every 10-15 years, these impacts can be stronger, longer, and more widespread.
The reason is that the sea surface temperature in this area may rise higher than the average of over 2 degrees Celsius, leading to a strong atmospheric reaction, usually peaking in December or January.
For example, the western United States, some areas in Africa, Europe and India may experience a hotter summer than usual. Meanwhile, tropical countries such as the Caribbean and Indonesia are at risk of severe drought and extreme heat. The number of tropical storms in the Pacific may increase, while the Atlantic is less.
This Super El Nino may also push global temperatures to record levels, especially in 2027, and at the same time affect agriculture as weather patterns change.
There is a real possibility of the strongest El Nino event in 140 years" - said Paul Roundy, Professor of Atmospheric Science at New York State University in Albany.
The potential super El Nino this year is increasingly assessed to be able to have a widespread impact and last until 2027.
This phenomenon may even break the El Nino intensity record set in December 2015, when seawater temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific region were 2.8 degrees Celsius higher than average.
However, despite many signs that a strong event, including a rare model of 3 storms forming together in the Pacific Ocean, still has many uncertainties about the actual strength of El Nino this year.
According to the latest forecast, weather impacts that may last at least until October include: Reduced storm activity in the Atlantic; drought risk in the Caribbean islands; Increased risk of storms and tropical depressions in the Pacific.
Drought risk in central and northern India, weakening the rainy season and affecting agricultural production; Summer temperatures and humidity higher than average in the western United States, accompanied by unusual heavy rains and prolonged storm seasons;
Drought in some areas of Central Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Central America and northern Brazil, especially towards the end of the year; Heavy rain causing flooding in Peru, Ecuador, some areas of Africa, the Middle East and the equatorial Pacific region;
The frequency of heat waves increased in South America, southern America, Africa, Europe, the Middle East, India and then Australia.
Notably, global temperatures may set new records, especially in 2027, and are likely to exceed the 2024 record.
