There are many signs that super El Nino may form this year, increasing extreme weather phenomena around the world. Super El Nino combined with heating due to the climate crisis caused by humans may cause the world to once again temporarily exceed the average temperature increase threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
Some forecast models see that the temperature difference may exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2027 and may even exceed 2 degrees Celsius for the first time in history.
Expert Marc Alessi at the Union of Concerned Scientists commented: "Most models predict that the global average temperature per month will remain below 2 degrees Celsius, but the fact that the possibility of an increase above 2 degrees Celsius still exists is shocking.
He pointed out that such a temperature increase will push the world closer to dangerous climate outbreaks.
Currently, according to the latest forecast from the US Climate Prediction Center, weather conditions are gradually shifting from La Nina to neutral. However, models are showing a rapid transition to El Nino.
A forecast from the International Institute for Climate and Social Studies at Columbia University, USA, released on April 20, said that there is a 70% chance of El Nino appearing in June and up to 94% lasting until the end of this year.
Although models show a high probability of a strong El Nino wave, experts also note that these figures tend to be predicted higher due to the global warming trend changing the standard temperature level.
In addition, spring often makes the forecast picture less clear, as this is a natural transitional period of the climate. However, early forecasts still show that the possibility of strong El Nino appearing is very high.
In a forecast released on April 15, the UK Meteorological Agency stated that experts are increasingly believing that El Nino 2026 may be in the strongest group in history.
Scientists told us that this could be the strongest El Nino since the beginning of this century" - the forecast bulletin emphasized.
