After a summer of heavy spending and building a squad considered the strongest in the Premier League, in the context of Liverpool and Manchester City entering a transition period, Arsenal has shown impressive form for most of this year's Premier League season.
The effectiveness of set pieces, combined with a solid defense - rarely giving the opponent a chance to shoot accurately, let alone score - has helped the "Gunners" maintain the top spot in the Premier League table since the beginning of October.
Arsenal have won all 8 matches in the Champions League to lead the group, reached the Carabao Cup final and also participated in the 5th round of the FA Cup. Despite only winning a 2-2 draw against Wolves in the midweek match, Arsenal still continues to lead the race in the Premier League. So why do the media and fans still question their championship ability?
Since the beginning of the new year, although still maintaining a winning streak in cup tournaments, Arsenal's form in the Premier League has shown signs of slowing down. They have only won 2 matches in the last 7 matches, and both were against newly promoted teams.
However, considering the performance of all teams in the last 8 rounds, Arsenal still won the same number of points as Manchester City and 2 points more than the third-placed Aston Villa. Although this result certainly does not meet expectations, the reality is that competitors cannot take advantage of the opportunity to narrow the gap.
Of course, Arsenal had reason to be disappointed, but they were also somewhat unlucky. In the second half of the draw at Molineux, Wolves only launched 2 shots on target and both were converted into goals.
Manchester United also scored from all 3 shots on target in the 3-2 victory right at the Emirates. Notably, both of these opponents only had a total expected goal index (xG) of approximately one goal, but scored up to 5 goals. In contrast, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool did not have any shots on target in the 0-0 draws against Arsenal.
Why is Arsenal's form declining?
Statistics show that Arsenal is playing less effectively in attack and at the same time is at a disadvantage in defense. That combination has left clear consequences.
In the last 7 matches, Arsenal's shot count has decreased by about 20%, leading to a similar decline in the xG index. It is not surprising that their average goals have decreased.
The personnel changes and injuries in the attack in recent months clearly have a significant impact. However, what worries fans especially is the lack of decisiveness in the attacking style, especially after taking the lead. Instead of increasing pressure to finish off the opponent, Arsenal often slows down, creating conditions for the opponent to regain the game and find an equalizer.
In recent weeks, Manchester United, Brentford and Wolves have all scored just minutes after Arsenal opened the score, at a time when The Gunners actively slowed down. A similar scenario also appeared in cup matches against Chelsea, Kairat and Inter in January.
Having to strain themselves in many arenas, along with injuries in the attack and the return of some key players who have not reached their best physical condition, may be negatively impacting the fitness and spirit of the whole team.
However, in terms of statistics, Arsenal's defense in this period has actually improved. Both the number of goals conceded and the number of shots on target they have faced are lower than the first 20 rounds.
Conceding more goals than the average partly reflects the element of bad luck, when 3 out of 6 recent goals conceded came from excellent finishes outside the penalty area.
Can Arsenal dispel the obsessions?
Arsenal is holding an advantage with a 5-point gap from Man City, but The Citizens still have one match to play, meaning the actual gap may only be 2 points. Notably, this is the scenario that appeared right from the early days of the new year. As the rounds pass and both teams drop points, Arsenal's chances of winning the championship, instead of narrowing, are gradually being consolidated.
However, Arsenal fans' biggest concern is still Pep Guardiola. In the sprint stage, Man City under the Spanish strategist often achieves destructive form. Statistics show that in the last 4 seasons, Man City averaged up to 30 points in the last 12 rounds, while Arsenal only achieved about 23 points in the same period.
The race is now in the hands of both teams. If Man City wins all of the remaining matches, they will be crowned champions. Arsenal also has similar self-determination, and may even accept a draw at the Etihad Stadium, provided they win all points in the remaining matches. However, such a perfect scenario rarely occurs in the Premier League, and many unpredictable variables are certainly still waiting ahead.
