10 years ago, also in November, at the Allianz Arena, Bayern Munich destroyed Arsenal.
That night, Arsene Wenger's team was devastated by Bayern Munich in a 1-5 defeat. That was their biggest loss in the European Cup. The Guardian newspaper then described Arsenal as "the favorite prey in Bundesliga Bayern still swallows every week". A year later, Bayern did the same in the round of 16. Even in their two encounters with Arsenal, Bayern ended up with a score of 5-1.
At that time, English football had dropped very deep in the Champions League. In the 2015 2016 and 2016 2017 seasons, only Man City and Leicester reached the quarter-finals.
Now, according to the Elo Club's assessment system, Arsenal is currently the No. 1 team in Europe, based on the strength of the playing style and the quality of the opponent, while Bayern is ranked 3rd. To date, among the 20 teams leading this ranking, there are 12 Premier League teams.
After Arsenal's easy victory in the North London Derby, at the same time Bayern crushed Freiburg 6-2, PSG beat Le Havre 3-0, there were 2 big questions.
First, how much stronger is the Premier League than in 2015, when Ronaldo - Messi were still roaming in La Liga, and Pep Guardiola led Bayern and destroyed Arsenal?
Second, will playing in easy leagues like Bundesliga or Ligue 1 help Bayern and PSG accumulate better physical strength for the Champions League? Or is it the opposite, having to face each other continuously in the Premier League making Arsenal, Man City or Liverpool sharper?
Premier League shows superiority
According to statistics, a Premier League top team often wins 66% of their matches. If playing in other tournaments, this rate will increase even more strongly. If Arsenal or Man City play in La Liga, their winning rate will increase by 9%. If they go to Bundesliga, Serie A or Ligue 1, the number will increase by 13% to 15%.
The Guardian said Arsenal could now earn 86 points if they play their entire Premier League season. But if they go to La Liga, they will reach 97 points; Bundesliga has 91 points in 34 matches and Serie A can end the season with more than 100 points.
In addition to the reality of last season, Barcelona won La Liga with 88 points, Bayern and Napoli won Bundesliga and Serie A with 82 points, so it is understandable why the Premier League is so superior.
10 years ago, England's strongest team only had the same performance when playing in La Liga or Bundesliga. However, the Premier League has left the rest behind.
Will an easy tournament help Bayern or PSG save their energy to compete for the Champions League title?
Last season's PSG was a typical example. They won Ligue 1 with a gap of 19 points and then moved up to the top of Europe. Opta data shows that PSG has an average of 4.78 changes to the starting lineup per match, the highest in Europe.
Playing in a less competitive tournament helps PSG rotate the perfect squad, the pillars only play about 50% of the minutes in the domestic tournament. Meanwhile, Liverpool used too many first-team teams in the 2024-2025 season, leaving them exhausted in the final stages.
However, when comparing data from the 14 richest clubs in Europe (over 300 million Euros in revenue per season) from 2016 to present, there is no clear link between playing in easy leagues and Champions League results.
For example, Bayern won 72% in the Bundesliga and 71%, in the Champions League. PSG won 72% in Ligue 1 but only 56% in the Champions League. Meanwhile, Inter have the same domestic wins rate as Bayern and PSG, but in the Champions League, they are only average. This shows that an easier tournament does not mean better results in the European arena.
The Premier League also provides similar data, with Liverpool and Man City having a Champions League win rate of more than 60%, while Tottenham and Manchester United even below 50%, even playing in a domestic league.
Arsenal Bayern is a match that exposes the transformation of European power
Returning to the upcoming Arsenal - Bayern match, this confrontation is not only attractive because of the quality of the two teams, it is also the clearest proof of the reversal of power from 2015 to present.
In 2015, Bayern were at the top, while Arsenal were crushed. Up to now, Arsenal is the No. 1 team in Europe according to the Elo model, the Premier League dominates the strength rankings, while Bayern is still strong but not too unpar real.
Arsenal vs Bayern is not just a big match, it is a milestone showing theolution of English football over a decade and a reminder that the balance of European power has shifted in an unpredictable direction 10 years ago.
