According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, storm No. 15 Koto is active in the East Sea with an intensity of level 8, gusting to level 10.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology - said that the next developments of storm No. 15 are still highly dispersed between international hydrometeorological models and agencies.
It is forecasted that from now until November 28, 2025, storm No. 15 will move west-northwest, then move mainly west at a speed of about 20km/h.
"From November 28, the time when the storm moves to near the equator at 113 degrees east longitude, the subtropical high pressure weakens, a low pressure trough appears in the westerly wind zone at an altitude of 5,000m, which is likely to affect the direction of the storm's movement. There are different possibilities for the path and impact of storm No. 15 on coastal areas as well as mainland areas of Vietnam" - Mr. Khiem added.
According to the representative of the meteorological agency, there are currently 2 scenarios for the development of this storm.
Scenario 1 has an 80% probability: The highest possibility of the storm changing direction to the north is when it reaches the northwest sea of Truong Sa special zone (about 500km east of the Gia Lai - Khanh Hoa coast (80%) When the storm moves to the 113th parallel east, the storm changes direction to move north, weakening into a low pressure area, then this low pressure area is likely to drift towards the mainland of the Central provinces, weakening at sea.
Regarding strong winds at sea: With this scenario, the sea area east of the central East Sea will have winds gradually increasing to level 6-7; the area near the storm's eye will have strong winds of level 8-9, gusts of level 11, waves 4-6m high, very rough seas. From November 27, the Central East Sea area (including the northern sea area of Truong Sa special zone) is likely to be affected by strong winds of level 10-11, gusts of level 14, waves 6.0 right to right, and rough seas.
Strong inland winds: There is little chance of storms.
"With this scenario, the area from Da Nang to Lam Dong is likely to experience a widespread heavy rain in the first days of December 2025, focusing on coastal areas. According to current analysis data, there is a high possibility of no extreme rain like the 16-21 November rain" - Mr. Khiem commented.
Scenario 2 is 20% worse: The storm does not change direction, entering the Gia Lai - Khanh Hoa area. The strongest storm intensity in the northern area of Truong Sa special zone can reach level 11, gusting to level 13. Then, move west towards the mainland of the Central provinces, focusing on the Gia Lai - Khanh Hoa area. The storm will weaken to level 8 or tropical depression.
Regarding strong winds at sea: Coastal areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong from November 29 will have strong winds of level 8, gusts of level 10, waves 3-5m high, and rough seas.
Regarding rain: Coastal areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong may have heavy rain of 150-250mm from November 29 to December 1, 2025. According to current analysis data, there is a high possibility of no extreme rain like the 16-21 rain.
Regarding floods: Currently, the water level of the South Central rivers has dropped below alert level1, with some rivers in Dak Lak at higher levels such as Ba River at alert level1, Srepok River above alert level 3 and Krong Ana River above alert level 2. The water level at 4:00 a.m. on November 26 on some rivers is as follows:
Ba River at Cung Son station is 30.99m, 1.49m above alert level 1.
The crepok River at Ban Don station (3am on November 26) is 174.31m, 0.31m above alert level 3.
The Krong Ana River at Giang Son station (1:00 a.m. on November 26) is 422.17m, 0.17m above alert level 2.
