"If Arsenal beat West Ham United in London on Sunday, they will win the Premier League." That is the opinion of former midfielder Jamie Carragher after the 3-3 draw between Manchester City and Everton.
Now, after Arsenal completed that task with a difficult, tense and controversial 1-0 victory over West Ham thanks to VAR intervention, Carragher's assessment is gradually becoming a reality.
The victory in London helped Arsenal re-establish a 5-point gap with Man City in the standings, after this gap was once narrowed to 2 points by Man City's 3-0 victory over Brentford.
Leandro Trossard's late goal brought 3 valuable points for coach Mikel Arteta's team. However, Arsenal also had to thank VAR when Callum Wilson's equalizer in injury time was disallowed after the referee determined he was at fault with goalkeeper David Raya.
That is a decision that I think the referees showed courage, but also very consistent with what they said throughout the season. When criticism was needed, I did it. But today, I must commend VAR for creating conditions for the referee to make the final decision.
Amidst all the pressure and chaos on the field, VAR helped the referee get clarity to make the right decision. And looking back at that situation, I think this is quite a clear mistake" - Arteta said after the match.
This is considered one of the most difficult challenges remaining for The Gunners in the championship race. West Ham entered the match with a 6-match unbeaten streak at home in the Premier League - their best record since September 2015 to April 2016, when the team was still playing at Upton Park.
However, Arsenal still overcame the pressure to take another long step towards their first Premier League title since the 2003-2004 season.
According to supercomputer simulations from Opta, Arsenal is currently the number one candidate for the championship. Before this round, the "Gunners" were predicted to win in 86% of the simulations of the rest of the season.
After Man City defeated Brentford, that rate decreased to 78.1%. However, the victory over West Ham helped Arsenal's chances of winning the championship increase back to 87.2%.
However, Opta's model does not completely agree with Carragher's assessment that the race is decided. According to the supercomputer's assessment, Arsenal has simply overcome one of the biggest remaining obstacles on the championship journey.
Opta also predicts Arsenal will win both remaining matches of the season. The London team will host Burnley - a relegated team - before playing away at Crystal Palace's Selhurst Park in the final round.
Crystal Palace is said to be distracted by the UEFA Europa Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano just a few days later in Leipzig. If they win all 6 points in the last two rounds, Arsenal will end 22 years of waiting to once again reach the top of English football.
However, the championship race has not officially closed. Man City once unexpectedly stumbled against Everton, and Arsenal also had to rely on VAR to preserve victory in London. However, if the "Gunners" can overcome the remaining match considered the most difficult, the championship is now very close to the Emirates stadium.
