Since August 2025, Man City has never narrowed the gap with Arsenal by less than 2 points. That could be changed this week when Man City plays first in round 34. They will meet Burnley away, then Arsenal will face Newcastle at home.
The gap between the two teams is currently 3 points and the goal difference is 1 unit. If Man City beat Burnley by a margin of 2 goals or more, they will take the top spot and put great pressure on the opponent.
If both teams have the same score record from now until the end of the season, the possibility of the championship will have to be considered by a very high goal difference. This happened in the 2011-2012 season when Man City escaped danger in the last minute against QPR and was crowned champion when they were better than Man United in goal difference (the two teams have the same 89 points after round 38).
Arsenal's most difficult opponent is considered West Ham when The Hammers play at home, are in high form and are determined to avoid relegation. Meanwhile, Man City also has to play away at Bournemouth's stadium, a very unpredictable opponent.
The question for Arsenal at this time is how will they revive their spirits before the match against Newcastle when they are losing 4 consecutive matches in the domestic arena since the League Cup final? As for Man City, they have also lost points many times this season when leading. They have lost points against West Ham, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur, Brighton, Sunderland and Chelsea. 5 of these matches were matches where City was leading.
No one, even insiders like Pep Guardiola or Mikel Arteta, can confirm that the two teams will win all matches from now until the end of the season. Although they can take the lead, Man City is no longer as strong as when Pep Guardiola competed with Jurgen Klopp. They are also like Arsenal or all other teams this season are extremely unstable.
In terms of factors, Erling Haaland will be Man City's main force in this sprint. The Norwegian striker has not scored in 4 Premier League matches before welcoming Arsenal in round 33. Remember, City has won 13/16 matches in the Premier League this season when Haaland scored.
As for Arsenal, it is very difficult to put someone on the scale to compare with Haaland. Factors like Kai Havertz, Viktor Gyokeres or Gabriel Jesus have not yet reached that level. In the most recent match, Havertz almost had a double if his header in the final minutes had not gone over the bar. However, that is still not enough.
After the match, Mikel Arteta said that the race between the two teams will enter a new stage, a stage where just a small mistake, whichever team encounters, will have to pay the price. Arsenal's attitude in the past match and previous matches did not show that they gave up, although sometimes helpless on the field like the match against Bournemouth. As for Man City, once they see an opportunity to overtake, they will fight to the end not to lose their decision-making power.
Therefore, the race in the remaining stage will be extremely fierce and may only be decided on the last day like the season when the two Manchester teams raced against each other 14 years ago.
With Man City, they have regained the feeling of playing football and are returning to form. As for Arsenal, they need to regain the rhythm, which was lost in the recent bad period. The performance at the Etihad was better than the matches against Bournemouth, Southampton and the League Cup final.
The fact that Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze both took the field helped Arsenal improve in terms of playing tempo and handling of moments. Typically, the situation where Eze flipped his foot and unleashed a shot that hit the post. Before the recent match, Eze and Odegaard had only started together in 3 Premier League matches this season, playing a total of more than 1/3 of the minutes possible (93/270 minutes) in those matches. They have the ability to coordinate to create breakthrough plays, so being on the field together at the same time may be very important.
