On the international market, stock indices have just recorded a positive week when they simultaneously headed up to the old peak before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East; in which, S&P 500 and Nikkei had breakthroughs to surpass these peaks.
VN-Index also moved in the same trend when it increased by 4.18% in the past week to the threshold of 1,822 points. Liquidity remained relatively uniform, with the average trading value of 5 sessions around 29,000 billion VND, approximately compared to the previous week.
Although there have been four consecutive weeks of increases, the market's breakthrough momentum is not strong and the signal of upward reversal has not been confirmed. As of the end of last week, although VN-Index has recovered more than 100 points since the beginning of April 2026, this is still an increase only concentrated in a few specific groups, not from the consensus of the entire market.
Profit-taking pressure and volatility are likely to increase in the pillar stock group that has led the index throughout the past week, while short-term cash flow is still waiting for clearer rhythm signals from other large-cap groups such as finance and retail.
This lack of spillover makes it more difficult to seek profits, forcing short-term capital flows to operate in moderation instead of leading a sustainable upward trend, leading to the situation of "green shell, red heart".
Kafi Securities Company believes that, entering the new week, VN-Index is likely to continue to test the resistance zone with alternating ups and downs. The resistance zone to note for VN-Index is in the range of 1,850-1,920 points. On the support side, the nearest level is 1,800 points; the support zone may expand down to 1,750-1,700 points in case the adjustment pressure from the pillar stock group becomes stronger.
Analysts from Yuanta Securities Company expressed the view that, in the context of increasing pressure from external factors, the Vietnamese stock market is also clearly reflecting the caution of cash flow.
Capital costs increased from margin activities are one of the notable signs. Margin lending interest rates at securities companies are trending upwards following the momentum of deposit interest rates. With the new margin interest rate level (the highest level is up to 14%/year), borrowed capital is no longer cheap. When the "cheap money" era closes, high capital costs directly erode purchasing power and change investors' risk appetites.
More notably, liquidity decreased significantly. In the first half of April 2026, market liquidity decreased to about 20,000 billion VND/session, compared to 30,000 billion VND/session in March 2026.
The "break" of about 33% in trading scale shows that buyers have retreated to their observation positions, while sellers are still waiting for clearer signals before making major trading decisions.
The defensive mentality is covering investor groups. The capital flow of domestic individual investors accounts for an average of about 80% of the total capital flow of the Vietnamese stock market. The decrease in market liquidity partly reflects the more cautious and cautious mentality of small investors who are sensitive to new market fluctuations. Meanwhile, foreign investors continue to maintain net selling momentum, putting great pressure on large-cap stocks," Yuanta's experts stated their views.
VCBS Securities Company recommends that, in the context of existing supply pressure and the market may enter fluctuations, investors need to maintain a cautious mentality, and should not disburse to chase buying for stock groups that have experienced a hot breakthrough or are approaching a strong resistance zone.
Investors should be patient to be able to disburse portions at adjustment phases in stocks with good fundamentals and belonging to cash flow-attracting industry groups such as banking and consumer goods.
