In the last weekend round, when Man City was playing in the FA Cup semi-finals with Southampton, Arsenal clashed with Newcastle at home in a context where they were tied on points and a goal difference of +37 with The Citizens. A 1-0 victory over an opponent who had lost 3 previous matches was predicted in advance for Mikel Arteta's team.
Although Arsenal's performance still had some points to improve, 3 points were kept intact. Both Mikel Arteta and the "Gunners" fans felt relieved when the final whistle sounded. Eberechi Eze's goal was the first goal in the opening 10 minutes of Arsenal's match this season at home. It was also the 17th goal scored from a corner kick by The Gunners since the beginning of the season in the Premier League, a new record for the league.
After that goal until the end of the match, Arsenal only had an xG of 0.49 compared to Newcastle's 1.0. Arsenal fans will be lucky when Yoane Wissa's shot went over the bar by a hair's breadth in the 79th minute. However, from now until the end of the season, there will be many dramatic matches like this.
In the context of Arsenal winning quite hard against Newcastle, Man City was also not better when they almost lost to Southampton. That was the match Pep Guardiola used a reserve squad at Wembley but could not make a difference. It was not until they put the main players on the field that The Citizens got a ticket to the FA Cup final.
While Arsenal will have the second leg semi-final match with Atletico Madrid, Man City will have to face Chelsea in the FA Cup final. Before and after that match, they will meet Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. All 3 of City's matches will only take place in 6 days, a terrible schedule pressure. In this sprint, no team is easy to breathe and just one mistake, both will pay a very heavy price.
In terms of schedule, Arsenal is slightly more advantageous than Man City. Based on Opta's average strength ranking against the remaining opponents, no team in the Premier League has an easier schedule. Fulham, currently ranked 10th, will be the highest-ranked team Arsenal faces in the last 4 matches.
In theory, that sounds favorable for The Gunners, but the risk of relegation often makes teams near the bottom of the table have to try harder at this stage of the season. That is why the away match against West Ham United next week becomes more difficult. West Ham has the 7th best goal difference in the Premier League since the beginning of the year, when Nuno Espirito Santo came and inspired the relegation race.
Man City will face Crystal Palace in a rescheduled match right before the FA Cup final. Not only that, they will be guests against Everton and Bournemouth, teams that play very uncomfortably and are still aiming for European cup tickets. Man City's season-end match is a confrontation with Aston Villa. If Villa wins the Europa League, they will have a Champions League ticket, so that match may not be tense for Pep Guardiola or vice versa.
The worrying factor Arsenal needs to consider is that Man City often finishes the season with a very strong sprint style. They often do that in championship seasons. Last season, although not winning the championship, the Etihad home team also balanced very well to finish in 3rd place, after a serious decline in form in the winter months.
Although Man City is famous as the leading team in the championship race, Opta's supercomputer still leans towards Arsenal. They are rated at 70.8% chance of ending their 22-year title drought, down from 97% at the beginning of April but up from 65% right before the victory over Newcastle last weekend.
Opta's model does not take into account intangible factors such as the opponent's motivation or the tension in the championship race. If only considering each match and focusing on the quality of the opponent, it is understandable that the statistical model leans towards them rather than Man City.
