Overview
Arsenal have the right to be optimistic before the second leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-finals when they only need a victory at home to overcome Atletico Madrid and win a ticket to the final. The 1-1 draw in the first leg in Spain was not a perfect result, but it was enough to put the "Gunners" in a favorable position when returning to the Emirates Stadium.
In the first leg, the game was tense and dominated by controversial decisions. Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez both scored from penalties, while Arsenal had reason to regret a VAR denied penalty related to Eberechi Eze. However, not losing away is still a factor that brings a great psychological advantage.
History is on Arsenal's side. Since the away goals rule was abolished, teams that drew in the first leg of the semi-finals have all won when returning home. Recent examples such as Manchester City against Real Madrid or Real Madrid itself against Bayern Munich show that home advantage in this context is decisive.
Not only that, Arsenal's performance in the Champions League is also extremely impressive. Under the guidance of Mikel Arteta, they have only lost two of their last 23 matches and are facing the opportunity to set a 14-match unbeaten streak record. Notably, Arsenal's defense is one of the most stable systems in the league, with a very low conceded goal rate.
Head-to-head record with Spanish teams is also a big strength. Arsenal is unbeaten in the last 8 matches against La Liga representatives in the Champions League, winning 7 matches. This is a figure showing that they are no longer afraid of opponents from Spain as in the past.
In the opposite direction, Atletico Madrid brings many question marks, especially the away form. Diego Simeone's team has lost six of the last seven away matches against Premier League teams in the Champions League, including a four-game losing streak. The 0-4 defeat to Arsenal in the group stage this season is still the clearest proof of that weakness.
However, Atletico's bravery cannot be underestimated. Under Simeone, they are always a team full of fighting spirit and capable of reversing the situation. Alvarez will be the biggest hope in attack, as he maintains impressive scoring and assisting performance in the Champions League, while making a strong contribution to the pressing system.
Head-to-head record
In the group stage, Arsenal once crushed their opponent with a 4-0 victory at the Emirates, before drawing 1-1 at the Metropolitano stadium in the first leg of the semi-finals. If he continues to maintain an unbeaten record against Diego Simeone, Arteta will join the group of rare coaches who have not lost in the first three encounters with the Argentine strategist in the Champions League, alongside Carlo Ancelotti and Maurizio Sarri.
However, history also reminds Arsenal that Atletico is not an easy opponent to subdue. The only time the two teams met in the Europa League semi-finals in 2018, Arsenal only got a 1-1 draw at home before losing 0-1 in Madrid. At that time, Simeone's team advanced straight to the championship with a 3-0 victory over Marseille.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-0 Atletico Madrid
The match between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid takes place at 2:00 a.m. on May 6 (Vietnam time).
