Overview
With a ticket to the round of 16 almost in hand, Newcastle United aims to complete the procedures when hosting Qarabag in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League play-offs.
The two teams faced each other in Azerbaijan in the first leg last week - for the first time in history both participated in a Champions League knockout round - and the Premier League representative showed their strength with a devastating 6-1 victory at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Anthony Gordon went down in history as the 18th player to score 4 goals in a Champions League match - all in the first half, including two goals from penalties - and also the first English player to score a hat-trick in the knockout round.
Despite missing a few more clear chances, Gordon still made his mark when he became the second fastest English player to reach the 10-goal mark in the Champions League (10 goals after 15 matches), only behind Harry Kane (10 goals after 12 matches).
In fact, in a Champions League season, only Ruud van Nistelrooy (12 goals for Manchester United in the 2002-2003 season) and Erling Haaland (12 goals for Manchester City in the 2022-2023 season) have scored more goals for a Premier League team compared to what Gordon is showing.
Newcastle has currently scored in 11 consecutive Champions League matches, with an average efficiency of more than 2 goals per match. Among European teams, only Bayern Munich (15 matches) has a longer scoring streak.
If they continue to triumph, coach Howe's team will have their sixth victory after 10 matches in the Champions League this season - a club's new record for the number of wins in a season, surpassing the achievement of 5 wins after 12 matches in the 2002-2003 season.
In the opposite direction, Qarabag travels to St. James' Park with a baggage of a series of unfavorable statistics. The Azerbaijani representative faces a long trip to the Northeast of England - where they have lost all five previous away matches, with a total score of 1-19.
The defeat in the first leg also means that English clubs have won 9/10 encounters with Qarabag in European arenas (1 draw), overwhelming with a total score of 33-2.
Overcoming the group stage with difficulty, coach Gurban Gurbanov's team conceded 27 goals - only one goal less than the record for the most goals conceded in a Champions League season, set by Bayer Leverkusen (28 goals after 17 matches in the 2001-2002 season).
Qarabag is also one of the 3 teams in the 21st century to concede 6 goals in 2 consecutive matches in the same Champions League season, after a 0-6 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield in the last round of the group stage, and then continued to be defeated miserably by Newcastle at home.
Despite having to win by a minimum of 5 goals in the second leg - a task that is almost impossible - the Baku representative still has some hope. Their biggest victories in the European arena all have a 5-goal difference. The most recent is the 7-2 crush on PFC Ludogorets Razgrad in Bulgaria in the Champions League 2024-2025 qualifiers.
However, Newcastle has never lost a European match with a difference of more than 3 goals - statistics further make Qarabag's dream of a comeback slimmer.
The "Magpies" are also facing the opportunity to re-establish an impressive milestone. The last time they won both continental knockout matches with a total score difference of 5 goals or more was in the 2004-2005 season, when they defeated Olympiacos 7-1 in the UEFA Europa League (then called the UEFA Cup). Their record for winning the most overall is a score difference of 8 goals, after a 10-2 victory over Royal Antwerp in 1994.
Head-to-head record
Newcastle's 6-1 victory at Baku in the first encounter between the two teams created an overwhelming advantage, thereby helping the English representative to be considered superior before the second leg.
The last two times Qarabag traveled to England in the UEFA Champions League both ended in heavy defeats 0-6, respectively against Chelsea in 2017 and Liverpool this season.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Qarabag
The match between Newcastle and Qarabag takes place at 3:00 AM on February 25 (Vietnam time).
