Overview
Newcastle United had to overcome Qarabag to win a ticket to the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League, in the context that coach Eddie Howe's team entered the first leg with a journey to break the record for travel distance.
Newcastle were forced to play in the play-offs after only finishing 12th in the group stage according to the 36-team format, closing the latest series in Europe with a 1-1 draw away against Paris Saint-Germain.
Meanwhile, Qarabag finished the group stage in 22nd place and continued to stay in the league. This will be the first time both teams have participated in a knockout match in the Champions League.
In the first leg, Newcastle had to travel more than 4,000 km to Baku - Qarabag's home stadium. This is the longest distance a English team has ever traveled for a Champions League away match.
Although the journey is predicted to be not easy, Newcastle can see opportunities from the problems in the home team's defense. Qarabag has conceded 2 or more goals in all 6 recent Champions League matches. For the whole season, the Azerbaijani representative conceded 21 goals - only less than Kairat (22), the team ranked last in the group stage.
Qarabag just lost to Liverpool 0-6 at Anfield in their most recent European match, but they still have reason to be confident when returning to Baku. In the group stage, coach Gurban Gurbanov's team once overcame Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt at home, and drew Chelsea 2-2.
However, the 3-2 victory over Frankfurt is the only time Qarabag has triumphed in the last 6 matches in the European arena (1 draw, 4 losses).
A notable support in Qarabag's hopes of a good result is striker Camilo Duran. The Colombian striker has scored 4 goals in the Champions League this season. Historically, only Jackson Martinez (7 goals in the 2014-2015 season for Porto) and Radamel Falcao (5 goals in the 2016-2017 season for Monaco) are Colombian players who have scored more goals in a Champions League season.
Newcastle entered this match with the expectation of gaining an advantage. They won 4 matches in the group stage, even though only one victory took place away from home.
If he continues to win in Baku, Eddie Howe will equal the record for the most wins of an English coach in a Champions League season. The Newcastle captain will become the fourth person to reach this milestone, alongside Bobby Robson (2002-2003 season, also with Newcastle) and Graham Potter (2022-2023 season with Chelsea).
However, Howe may worry that Newcastle is too dependent on two attacking spearheads. Anthony Gordon or Harvey Barnes have scored or assisted up to 76% of Newcastle's goals in the Champions League this season (13/17). Gordon has 6 goals and 2 assists, including one assist for Barnes against Benfica. Meanwhile, Barnes scored 5 goals and had 1 assist.
In the opposite direction, Newcastle's center forwards have not made a clear mark in Europe. Yoane Wissa has only scored 1 goal after 3 appearances, while Nick Woltemade also only has similar statistics even though he has played 8 matches.
Head-to-head record
This will be the 10th encounter between Azerbaijani and English clubs in the European arena (all with Qarabag's presence). The Premier League representatives are still undefeated, winning 8 and drawing 1.
Qarabag has lost all 5 away matches in the European arena when facing the English representatives, with a total score of 1-19.
Score prediction: Qarabag 0-1 Newcastle
The match between Qarabag and Newcastle takes place at 0:45 AM on February 19 (Vietnam time).
