Overview
Nottingham Forest will host Arsenal, in a match considered the highlight of the Premier League round this weekend.
When the ball rolls at City Ground, the gap between Arsenal and the second-placed team may be only 3 points. Having to play away at Nottingham in a dense and long schedule, including trips to Chelsea and Inter, is certainly not an easy challenge for Mikel Arteta. Although he just defeated Chelsea 3-2 in the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-finals, it was still a hard-fought victory for the "Gunners".
However, Arsenal's opponent is only ranked 17th in the standings. Current form does not bring much hope to Sean Dyche's team. Forest has lost 6 out of 10 home matches in the Premier League this season (3 wins), more than the number of losses they suffered at City Ground in the entire previous season. Only West Ham and Wolves are the teams that lost more home games in the 2025-2026 season.
6 home defeats is also Forest's highest number after the first 10 home matches in a season. The last time they lost more in this period was the 1908-1909 season, with 7 losses after 11 matches.
More worryingly, Forest have conceded 17 goals at home in the Premier League this season, more than the total number of goals conceded at City Ground throughout the 2024-2025 season (16 goals). This opens up clear opportunities for Arsenal to continue scoring.
The Gunners just drew 0-0 with Liverpool in the most recent round, but since the 2022-2023 season, they have only not scored twice in two consecutive Premier League matches. Ironically, both times, the second match took place away from Nottingham Forest - one of the few spiritual supports for home fans.
In addition to that detail, all statistics lean towards Arsenal. The North London team has kept a clean sheet in all three recent encounters with Forest in the Premier League - their most impressive series against this opponent.
Not only that, Arsenal is the team that scored the most goals from set pieces (excluding penalties) in this season's tournament with 14 goals. This may be a decisive factor, as Bournemouth alone conceded more goals from dead balls than Forest.
The harsh schedule may force Arteta to rotate the squad somewhat. Arsenal will be missing Riccardo Calafiori, Piero Hincapie, Cristhian Mosquera and young talent Max Dowman. However, Arteta still hopes to be able to use Bukayo Saka. No player in the Premier League this season directly participates in more shots after leading than Saka, and that could make Neco Williams' evening particularly difficult.
On the other side, Forest is likely to have almost the strongest force, except for the definite absence of Chris Wood. Reserve goalkeeper John Victor may also not play, while Ryan Yates is about to return and Willy Boly and Ibrahim Sangare are ready after the African Cup.
Head-to-head record
Despite many factors that help them be rated higher, Arsenal does not have an impressive record at City Ground. The "Gunners" have only won one of their last five away games in all competitions here.
However, from a Premier League perspective, Arsenal still has a clear advantage. Nottingham Forest has lost 8 of their last 10 encounters with Arsenal in the highest league in England.
Both exceptions take place at City Ground since Forest returned to the Premier League in 2022, with a 1-0 victory in May 2023 and a 0-0 draw in February 2025.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-2 Arsenal
The match between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal takes place at 0:30 AM on January 18 (Vietnam time).
