Overview
The round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup will kick off with a confrontation between hosts Canada and Morocco at the Houston stadium.
Canada won a ticket to the round of 16 according to a dramatic scenario when scoring in injury time to defeat South Africa, in a match that seemed to have to enter extra time.
Meanwhile, Morocco also created a spectacular comeback against the Netherlands when equalizing in the final minutes before winning in a penalty shootout.
This is the first time Canada has passed a knockout stage at the World Cup right in its first appearance. However, Morocco is gradually affirming its position as a "cup specialist".
Not counting the finals and third-place matches, Morocco has surpassed 6 of the last 8 knockout matches at the World Cup and African Cup (AFCON), including three wins decided by penalties.
The performance against the Netherlands showed that the North African representative is strong enough to defeat any opponent. Throughout 120 minutes of play, Ronald Koeman's team only created 0.24 expected goals (xG), and made only 292 accurate passes, compared to Maroc's 801.
This is a statistic that is hard to imagine if considering the tradition of "all-out football" of the Netherlands. However, it also reflects the strong rise of Morocco to become one of the most formidable teams in the international arena.
Morocco once reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and there is every reason to believe that the current squad is even stronger. At the 2026 World Cup, they only face an average of 8.3 shots per game and receive an average of 0.8 expected goals conceded (xGA) per game. This is the first time in World Cup history that they have maintained a level of less than 10 shots conceded and less than 1.0 xGA per game in the entire tournament.
Therefore, Canada will enter the match as a team that is rated lower. However, Canada's strength lies in their ability to adapt flexibly. They controlled the ball on average 61% in the group stage, but this number decreased to 42% in the victory over South Africa in the round of 32. Against Morocco, Canada is likely to continue to choose a similar playing style.
That change seems to be in the calculations of coach Jesse Marsch. Against South Africa, Canada only performed high-intensity pressing in 41.6% of the opponent's touches, their lowest level since the beginning of the tournament.
For many teams that are considered weaker, bringing the match to a penalty shootout is often considered an ideal result. However, Canada probably does not want that when the opponent is Morocco.
In World Cup history, Morocco has faced eight penalties in penalty shootouts but only conceded twice. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou continues to affirm his class when successfully saving Crysencio Summerville's shot in the penalty shootout against the Netherlands, showing that Morocco's impressive achievement on the 11m spot is not entirely due to luck.
Head-to-head record
This will be the fifth time Canada has faced Morocco in all competitions. In the previous four encounters, the North American representative has not yet known the taste of victory when drawing one and losing three. Only against Scotland (6 matches) and Iceland (5 matches), Canada has more encounters but still cannot win.
Score prediction: Canada 0-1 Morocco
The match between Canada and Morocco takes place at 0:00 AM on July 5th (Vietnam time).
