Overview
The match between Tottenham and Dortmund is considered one of the most notable confrontations in the seventh round of the UEFA Champions League group stage in the 2025-2026 season. Not only because of the key nature of the group but also because of the increasing pressure on coach Thomas Frank.
The two teams entered this round of matches with close positions in the standings. Tottenham is 11th, Dortmund is right above in 10th place. Both have the same number of points and goal difference, but the Bundesliga representative is ahead thanks to scoring more than 6 goals.
In the context that Atletico Madrid - the eighth-placed team - is only one point ahead of them and has a lower goal difference, the opportunity to win a direct ticket to the knockout round is still completely open for both Spurs and Dortmund.
In the final match, Tottenham will play away at Eintracht Frankfurt, while Dortmund will host Inter Milan. Considering the current ranking of these two opponents - Frankfurt ranked 30th and Inter ranked sixth - the confrontation in London may be more vital for the away team if they want to secure a place to continue.
In terms of form, Dortmund is clearly dominant. The yellow-black team is unbeaten in 7 consecutive matches in all competitions. Conversely, Tottenham has not won in the last 5 matches and lost all 3 recent matches, including the defeat in the London derby against West Ham at home last weekend. It is not surprising that Frank's seat is under heavy pressure.
On Dortmund's side, the biggest threat is still Serhou Guirassy. Since the beginning of last season, the Guinean striker has directly contributed to 22 goals in the Champions League (16 goals, 6 assists), more than any other player. 16 goals alone are also the highest achievement in the tournament, equal to Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe in the same period.
It was Guirassy and Nmecha who helped Dortmund own the highest scoring conversion rate in the league this season (24%). The German team also leads in overxG efficiency, scoring 19 goals compared to 12.8 expected goals - a difference of +6.2.
This could be a key factor, especially when Tottenham's most stable goal source in the Champions League this season comes from opponents' own goals, with 3 such goals.
However, Spurs still have an important fulcrum. That is impressive home form in the European arena. Tottenham is the only team to win all 3 home matches in the Champions League season 2025-2026 without conceding a goal. They also kept a clean sheet in 54% of matches at Tottenham Hotspur (7/13), the third best record in Champions League history for stadiums with more than 10 matches.
These numbers explain why Spurs are unbeaten in 23 consecutive home matches in European cups, including the qualifiers, with 19 wins and 4 draws since the 0-1 defeat to RB Leipzig in February 2020.
Meanwhile, Dortmund has a worrying away record in England, losing 10 out of 14 Champions League matches, including 7 out of the last 8 away matches.
Personnel situation
This will be the seventh encounter between Tottenham and Dortmund in European competitions. The Bundesliga representative once won all two matches in the UEFA Europa League 2015-2016, but since then the head-to-head balance has completely tilted towards Spurs.
Tottenham won in all four encounters with Dortmund in the Champions League in the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons, making the German team one of their favorite opponents in the most prestigious arena in the continent.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Dortmund
The match between Tottenham and Dortmund takes place at 3:00 AM on January 21 (Vietnam time).
