Overview
After Dominik Szoboszlai's beautiful free kick brought a 1-0 victory for Liverpool against Arsenal at Anfield in August, many believe that the rematch in January will be crucial in the championship race for both teams.
However, Liverpool's decline in form in the fall has changed the situation. Before the clash at the Emirates, the gap between the two teams had reached 14 points, making Liverpool's championship ambition almost unrealistic, while Arsenal emerged as the number one candidate.
Mikel Arteta's team is unlikely to start 2026 in a more impressive way. In the context that Manchester City has dropped points twice since the beginning of the year - drawing Sunderland 0-0 and Chelsea 1-1 - Arsenal won a breathtaking 3-2 victory against Bournemouth in the most recent round.
After 20 rounds, Arsenal is leading Man City and Aston Villa by 6 points. Opta's supercomputer assesses the "Gunners"' chances of winning the championship at 85.7%. This number for Man City is only 10.9%, Aston Villa 4.2%, and Liverpool has almost no chance left, only 0.07%.
Although they will know the results of The Citizens and Villa's matches before playing, Arteta still considers welcoming the defending champion as an important milestone. Arsenal have won their last 2 home matches in the Premier League against the defending champion - both against Man City in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons. The last time they did the same thing in 3 consecutive seasons was from the period 1961-1962 to 1963-1964.
The performance at Emirates is also very impressive as Arsenal have won all 7 recent home matches in the Premier League. Under Arteta, they only had a longer winning streak once, with 10 consecutive victories from April to December 2022.
The victory against Bournemouth also showed Arsenal's strength away from home. Declan Rice scored a double in the Premier League for the first time in his 296th appearance, while Gabriel Magalhaes scored in his second consecutive match to avenge the mistake that led to the early goal conceded.
Gabriel's ability to take advantage of set pieces can continue to play a decisive role, especially when Arne Slot admits that Liverpool played poorly in this aspect throughout the festival period. The Kop have conceded the most goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season (13 goals, equal to Bournemouth), accounting for 46.4% of the total goals conceded.
Conversely, Arsenal is leading the league in terms of goals from set-piece situations (12, equal to Leeds United) and expected goals (9.9 xG). Liverpool not only defends poorly in dead balls but also faces difficulties in attack, ranking 18th overall in terms of xG from set-piece situations (4.7).
However, Liverpool's concern is not only about corner kicks or free kicks, because Bukayo Saka is in a special predestined relationship with The Kop. He has scored in 3 consecutive home matches of Arsenal against Liverpool in the Premier League, and no "Gunners" player has ever done that in 4 consecutive matches.
Liverpool entered the match after dropping two unfortunate points in the 2-2 draw with Fulham. Harrison Reed's long-range shot in the seventh minute of added time defeated Alisson, just 3 minutes after Cody Gakpo put the away team ahead 2-1. Gakpo's goal in the 94th minute became one of the latest goals in Premier League history that the scoring team still could not win.
Gakpo is in good form in London, with 3 away goals this season - all in the last three trips to the capital, respectively against Chelsea, West Ham and Fulham. He could become the second Liverpool player to score on the field of 4 different London teams in a Premier League season, after Mohamed Salah in the 2017-2018 and 2020-2021 seasons.
Head-to-head record
This will be the first Premier League match between Arsenal and Liverpool to take place on Thursday. The last time the two teams faced each other on Thursday was at Anfield in December 1947, when Arsenal won 3-1.
Liverpool will also become the second team that Arsenal has ever met in all 7 days of the week in the Premier League, after Southampton.
However, Arsenal has a clear "black spot" in their head-to-head history. They have never lost more Premier League matches against any opponent than Liverpool, with 26 defeats, equal to Manchester United.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool
The match between Arsenal and Liverpool takes place at 3:00 AM on January 9th (Vietnam time).
