Despite being rated by Opta supercomputers as having 62% chance of winning, England still has to face many difficult problems against an effective Norway.
The two teams entered the quarter-finals in very different ways. Norway surprised by defeating Brazil 2-1 to participate in the quarter-finals of a major tournament for the first time in history. Meanwhile, England had to play with 10 men for nearly half of the match before overcoming Mexico 3-2 after a brave performance.
England's collective strength faces Haaland's sharpness
In terms of statistics, England surpassed Norway in most attacking indicators. Coach Thomas Tuchel's team launched more shots, created more dangerous opportunities, had a higher expected goal difference (xG) and made more passes into the opponent's penalty area.
However, Norway scored more goals. The biggest reason is named Haaland. The Manchester City striker scored 7 goals after only 12 shots on target. He only had six more shots that were not on target, while the expected goal index excluding penalties (4.32) is the highest in the league.
Those numbers reflect the incredible efficiency of Haaland, and also explain why Norway possesses the highest average xG index per shot at the 2026 World Cup. The Northern European team does not create as many chances as England, but each opportunity is of very high quality and is often placed in the feet of the world's best finishing striker.
On the opposite side, Harry Kane is also in impressive form with 6 goals after 19 shots, including 10 shots on target. However, 2 out of 6 goals of the England captain came from penalties. If only counting open balls, Haaland's scoring efficiency is still slightly higher.
Jude Bellingham is the second dangerous spearhead of the "Three Lions". The Real Madrid midfielder has scored 4 goals and even has a higher xG from live balls than Kane.
Conversely, Norway's attack almost revolves around Haaland. This striker has scored 6 more goals than any teammate, while 4 other Norwegian players have only scored one goal.
This shows that England possesses more diverse attacking options and has better control of the game. However, if the match is decided by the ability to take advantage of opportunities, Haaland is still a "weapon" that no player on the field can match.
Another notable factor of Norway is Andreas Schjelderup. Although he has only played 183 minutes at the 2026 World Cup, this winger has created three clear chances for Haaland, showing the formidable understanding between the two stars in the Norwegian attack.
The Brazilian team could not lock down Haaland in the round of 16 and paid the price with defeat. If they do not learn a lesson from that match, England is completely at risk of becoming the next victim of this striker who is in destructive form.
The match between Norway and England takes place at 4:00 AM on July 12 (Vietnam time).
